Written by Cameron Schoffro
Edited by Jovan Popovic
In the 2020-21 season, hockey fans will be able to recognize the premier NHL team in Canada. Due to COVID-19 border restrictions, it is increasingly likely that we will see an All-Canadian division next season. The criteria compiled is last year’s results, the Athletic’s staff rankings, evaluating roster construction, and accounting for offseason moves made by each team. The Athletic is a journalism platform that hosts some of the most esteemed NHL writers. Dom Luszczyszyn spearheaded the project of ranking the Canadian NHL teams with the help of his peers and the model he uses to predict future success. Using this criteria and further analysis, this is how an All-Canadian division would stack up if the NHL proceeds with this format.
1. Toronto Maple Leafs
• Roster Balance: 1
• Athletic Staff Rank: 1
• 2019-20 Position: 2
Toronto has one of the premier forward groups in the NHL, yet they are often criticized for their top-heavy structure. General manager, Kyle Dubas, entered this offseason with a very specific set of goals; he bolstered the blueline with the acquisition of TJ Brodie, and by declining to re-sign defensively inept players Cody Ceci and Tyson Barrie. Dubas has injected grit into the lineup with the addition of Wayne Simmonds, Zach Bogosian, and Joe Thornton. Their veteran presence should steady the emotions within the trepidatious Toronto locker room. Dubas believes in paying top-talent and continuously cycling through depth options, he decided veterans possess intangibles that his young core demands. Many media pundits have deemed Toronto’s goaltending a wild card, but Frederik Andersen has received Vezina contention throughout his tenure in Toronto. The backup goalie position was a glaring issue last year until Jack Campbell replaced Michael Hutchinson. Toronto intends to right the ship and continue on their path towards playoff success with a new, balanced edition of the Maple Leafs.
2. Edmonton Oilers
• Roster Balance: 4
• Athletic Staff Ranking: 2
• 2019-20 Position: 1
Led by Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, the Edmonton Oilers do not emphasize defence with their style of play. Ken Holland doubled down on this philosophy with his transactions this offseason. He neglected the leading cause of their elimination from the 2020 play-in round: goaltending. The tandem of Mikko Koskinen and Mike Smith is incredibly subpar. Either of these goalies is capable of a hot stretch lasting a few weeks; however, added stability in net would resonate throughout the rest of the team. Edmonton is relying on the progression of their young players Kailer Yamamoto, Jesse Puljujarvi, Caleb Jones, and Ethan Bear to strengthen their depth and lead them to contention; but without improving defensively, they may fail to do so. The Oilers’ major acquisition is the aforementioned Tyson Barrie, who will certainly not contribute to defensive improvement. He is expected to quarterback the already #1 ranked powerplay that finished the 2019-20 season with a 29.5% scoring rate, trouncing the #2 Boston Bruins at 25.2%. Edmonton must outscore their defensive issues, as they did last year, to find success in an all-Canadian division.
3. Calgary Flames
• Roster Balance: 2
• Athletic Staff Ranking: 3
• 2019-20 Position: 3
The Calgary Flames have been flirting with Stanley Cup contention for several seasons, finishing at the top of the Pacific Division in 2018-19. David “Big Save Dave” Rittich was; evidently, not the goaltender to take Calgary to the next level, so they pursued Jacob Markstrom in the offseason. Markstrom will offer the most consistency in the crease since Miikka Kiprusoff retired in 2013. Their main roster moves involved losing Brodie to free agency and replacing him with Chris Tanev, a relatively parallel swap. The Flames refrained from panicking and blowing up their core. With Gaudreau, Monahan, Lindholm, and Tkachuk returning, they will be a capable offensive team. However, the identity of the Flames is created by the best group of defencemen in Canada. Giordano leads the team, accompanied by Hanifin, Andersson, and Tanev to round out an exceptional group of defencemen. Calgary will aspire to be the divisional leader, despite lacking the star power of Toronto or Edmonton.
4. Vancouver Canucks
• Roster Balance: 3
• Athletic Staff Ranking: 5
• 2019-20 Position: 5
After a surprising amount of success in the bubble, the Vancouver Canucks look to sustain their high level of play. Jim Benning has signed some horrendous contracts, namely Loui Eriksson and Jay Beagle, making a combined $9 Million to fill out their 4th line. This reckless spending has handcuffed Benning, restricting him from retaining the depth that propelled them to such heights in the bubble. Consequently, Tanev, Markstrom, Leivo, Fantenberg, Toffoli, and Stetcher have all been subtracted from the Canucks’ roster. Thatcher Demko looked extremely promising in the bubble, and Braden Holtby will join him in a mentoring role to prepare Demko to be the franchise’s next star goaltender. Benning improved the blueline drastically when he acquired Nate Schmidt from Vegas, a valid running mate for the wunderkind Quinn Hughes. Vancouver has prioritized top-end talent over depth, the Canucks would have the potential to be a Canadian frontrunner if they didn’t carry exorbitant amounts of dead cap invested in AHL quality players.
5. Montreal Canadiens
• Roster Balance: 5
• Athletic Staff Ranking: 4
• 2019-20 Position: 6
The Montreal Canadiens showed how effective they are capable of being in the play-in round, by essentially dismantling the Pittsburgh Penguins. Carey Price remains an outstanding goaltender, and finally Marc Bergevin accomplished the task of reducing the burden on Price, by acquiring Jake Allen from the St Louis Blues. The Canadiens now spend $14 million on their goaltenders, which is the most in the NHL, by far. With this addition, Bergevin hopes to be maximizing Price’s effectiveness. A large portion of Montreal’s success rides upon the shoulders of their young centres Nick Suzuki and Jesperi Kotkaniemi, who have not shown they can elevate the Canadiens to sustained success yet. Gallagher and Domi have been the heart and soul of the team in recent seasons; Bergevin chose to offer a large contract to Gallagher and trade Domi for Josh Anderson. Admittedly, Anderson brings a level of physicality Domi lacks, although he is incredibly injury-prone and he scored a negligible 1 goal in 26 games last year. Furthermore, Montreal sacrificed a 3rd round pick and signed Anderson to a more expensive extension than Domi. Montreal surrendered a diverse style of play by prioritizing grit over skill, this philosophical mistake is exemplified on their backend. Shea Weber, Ben Chairot, and Joel Edmundson are a menace to play against, but they would be unable to match the pace of the high-flying Canadian teams opposing them.
6. Winnipeg Jets
• Roster Balance: 6
• Athletic Staff Ranking: 6
• 2019-20 Position: 4
Winnipeg has star-studded top two forward lines; with Scheifele, Wheeler, Laine, Connor, and Ehlers they will have no trouble scoring. Looking past the franchise cornerstones, the complementary players are subpar. In a condensed season, injuries are inevitable, and the Jets don’t have the depth to replace any of these elite forwards. Last year, Connor Hellebuyck single-handedly propelled the Jets to mediocrity. He had an unbelievable season, eventually winning the Vezina and receiving Hart contention. Hellebuyck’s season was unpredictable and likely won’t repeat; Jets fans can expect his numbers to regress back to the earth. Winnipeg’s major weakness is their defence. Outside of Morrissey and Pionk, their defensive shortcomings are going to be exposed by the top-end talents dispersed throughout the division. Winnipeg is a wild card; they could excel if they are firing on all cylinders, or if Hellebuyck can’t continue his elite performance they could find themselves outclassed by their competition.
7. Ottawa Senators
• Roster Balance: 7
• Athletic Staff Ranking: 7
• 2019-20 Position: 7
Ottawa’s ranking in the division was the easiest decision to make. The Senators are the only team that is not expecting nor attempting to compete for the Stanley Cup. Pierre Dorion has let the youth movement take over the team, and has stockpiled draft picks and filled the roster with prospects. The Senators have taken chances on many low-risk high-reward players; thus finding value in players that other teams are discarding. For example, Connor Brown, Artem Anisimov, and Chris Tierney have all blossomed with increased roles in Ottawa. Dorion hopes a similar process takes place with recently acquired Alex Galchenyuk and Matt Murray. Hopefully, they can find the best versions of themselves in Ottawa. Dorion is obviously icing the worst roster in this division, yet he can find solace in knowing he has already found cornerstones of the franchise. Thomas Chabot and Brady Tkachuk have already excelled in the NHL at a young age and recent #3 draft pick Tim Stutzle hopes to follow in their footsteps. Ottawa is entering the 2020-21 season with low expectations, any progression from their performance last year will be welcomed by management. The majority of Canadian hockey fans are anticipating an All-Canadian division. In a season with minimal revenues, nonstop Canadian matchups should help NHL TV ratings, and progress the previously deep-embedded rivalries. Moreover, these teams would face off in the playoffs. Based on this ranking, Edmonton vs Calgary are projected to meet in the first round, which would be one of the most exciting series in recent memory. With never-ending complications and obstacles, the pandemic restrictions have allowed the NHL to get creative in how they approach the next season; they must use this opportunity to attract the attention of all Canadian hockey fans.
Cameron Schoffro
References:
Luszczyszyn, Dom. “How an Imbalanced Canada Division Would Affect the Standings,” October 28, 2020. https://theathletic.com/2162288/2020/10/28/how-an-imbalanced-canada-division-would-affect-the-standings/?source=user_shared_article.
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