The Toronto Blue Jays are coming off what was another disappointing season in 2023. A team that started the season as second favourite to win the American League East (AL East) only after the New York Yankees, a perennially strong team that was coming off a historic season from their superstar Aaron Judge. The division ended up being a complete surprise as the low-budget Tampa Bay Rays found a way to craft a top team that finished in second with 99 wins, bolstered by their thirteen-game winning streak to start their season (stopped by a loss to the Blue Jays on April 14), and a strong, young Baltimore Orioles team that put together an astounding 101-win season to win the division. Moreover, the Yankees faced injury issues and struggled to perform to their highest, their 82 wins only placing them above the 78-win Boston Red Sox. However, in Canada, the story was about the Blue Jays finding a way to turn a league-favourite team at the start of the season into a pumpkin by the time they got swept in their Wild Card series for the third time in four seasons. Questions now remain about the core of the Blue Jays lineup as they lose control over both Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in 2026, two short seasons from now as it stands. Considering the underwhelming offseason, the Jays are questioning whether the team have what it takes to take a step forward from last year or will this year be a step back for the franchise? How will the Blue Jays get fans excited about the team after a disappointing free agency? Can the Blue Jays reasonably compete for a World Series with this lineup or does the team need to look to retool if they have another disappointing season? The Blue Jays are facing a pivotal season that could shape the franchise as they look to the future and find out if they are really a contender.
Free Agency Woes
The best place to preview the Blue Jays’ season starts with the most recent offseason. The Blue Jays had one of their most disappointing offseasons this year with big names like Soto and Bellinger being named as potential Blue Jays targets. However, the big fish this offseason was Shohei Ohtani, the dumbfounding starting pitcher/designated hitter combo that has lit up the MLB in recent years with his elite pitching AND hitting. Moreover, for Blue Jays fans, we slowly realized as free agency moved along and the hype around Ohtani’s potential landing spot built that the Blue Jays were the sole frontrunner alongside the Los Angeles Dodgers!
Ohtani is a perennial top-five pitcher in the league while being an All-Star calibre hitter, suggesting that he should be paid the combined salary of a top-five pitcher and a top hitter this free agency. His impact on both sides of the ball is immense, and if a team spends the money to surround him with a strong lineup, he can be the centrepiece of a dynasty. Ohtani also has unprecedented value to a franchise off the field. Shohei Ohtani alone generated approximately 337 million US dollars during the 2022 season according to a study done by economist Katsuhiro Miyamoto in October 2022. Over 143 million dollars of that has directly been impacted by Ohtani through ticket sales, merchandise, and sponsorships. Ohtani’s popularity in Japan and North America is felt when watching Los Angeles home games, where Japanese ads for the entertainment of Japanese fans surrounds the ballpark.
All of this considered, Blue Jays fans were extremely excited to have a shot at Ohtani, and as more time passed with only the Blue Jays and Dodgers as contenders for Ohtani, many pundits were increasing the chance that Ohtani would end up in Toronto. Finally, the announcement came out that Ohtani had signed with a team, and Blue Jays fans were crushed to see the Dodgers logo on his chest in lieu of a Blue Jay. The Jays gave it their best shot to acquire one of the best players that game has ever seen and failed. Additionally, they were also rumored to get another great bat, Juan Soto; however, in focusing resources on Ohtani, the New York Yankees were able to work out a trade with the San Diego Padres to bring Soto to the Bronx. After the dust settled on Ohtani’s deal, fans hoped the Blue Jays would pivot to the next best bat that was available in free agency, Cody Bellinger. Unfortunately, their plan in case they did not get Ohtani was clearly a more conservative approach that prioritized saving money this offseason, and fans were left disappointed as the Jays slowly exited the race for Bellinger’s services.
The Blue Jays not landing any star power disappointed fans and more importantly, has resulted in the team failing to replace key players who have been lost to free agency. The most notable players that the Jays lost include third baseman Matt Chapman and high-leverage bullpen arm Jordan Hicks who both ended up with the San Fransisco Giants; utility man Whit Merrifield left for the Philadelphia Phillies; Brandon Belt in their designated hitter and first base roles; and veteran starting pitcher in Hyun-jin Ryu left North America to finish his career in his home country’s league, the KBO in South Korea. The notable signings for the Blue Jays on the other hand included the veteran hitters Joey Votto and Dan Vogelbach who were signed to minor league deals, infielders Justin Turner and Isiah Kiner-Falefa, and Yariel Rodríguez, a Cuban pitcher coming over from the Japanese NPB. Those five players along with the resignation of center fielder Kevin Kiermaier were the only signings that the Blue Jays made that would affect their major league ballclub and some clear holes were left unfilled.
To start, Justin Turner played well against the Blue Jays last season and was brought in as a veteran presence who will primarily serve as the designated hitter in the same role that Brandon Belt held last year, ticking him off the replacement to-do list. Joey Votto and Dan Vogelbach were veteran signings who were brought in solely for their ability with a bat in their hands throughout their careers. Now that they are nearing the end of their careers, the Jays were able to give them one more shot at staying in the major leagues on cheap minor-league deals. Votto is likely to see some playing time in a designated hitter role at some point in the season and Vogelbach has performed well enough in Spring Training that he has secured himself a spot coming off the bench on the Opening Day roster. That leaves the last key position player signing for the Blue Jays this offseason, Isiah Kiner-Falefa. The Blue Jays have him as their likely Opening Day starting third baseman as of reporting, and he replaces Matt Chapman the four-time Gold Glove Award winner as a third baseman. For comparison's sake, Isiah Kiner-Falefa has some of the sketchiest defensive metrics in the league. He seems to show good range from his time at the shortstop position with the Yankees, but he has a weak arm which could mean Blue Jays fans may be seeing runners beat throws from third base more often than they are accustomed to with Chapman in that spot. His fielding may not even be where the Blue Jays experience the most drop-off from the third base position, because Kiner-Falefa is definitely a downgrade in offensive ability with some truly terrible advanced hitting stats according to Baseballsavant, one of the most popular baseball advanced stat sites. Even though he was better last season than his poor 2022 campaign, it is very possible that the Blue Jays suffer greatly without a top third baseman this season. However, a bright spot in the offseason was the signing of promising pitcher Yariel Rodríguez to a 5-year deal, totalling 32 million dollars. He has pitched well in the NPB as a reliever where he maintained a 1.15 earned runs average (ERA), and as a starting pitcher in the World Baseball Classic where he had an ERA of 2.45. It is still not fully clear what his role will be long-term, but as of reporting he is being used as a starter and could add some much-needed depth to a position that often faces injury issues throughout an MLB season.
To Spring Training and Beyond!
The question going into Spring Training was whether or not the position players acquired could improve a contending team, and whether the pitching staff would be able to perform at the same level as last season to give the Blue Jays a chance to make a run in the fall. The first thing fans may have looked to was pitching since the Blue Jays pitching last season was stellar - one of the best pitching staffs in the league. While fans waited patiently for Spring Training to see good outings from their pitching staff, they instead saw their ace, Kevin Gausman, exit Spring Training with a shoulder problem. Bounce-back starting pitcher candidate Alek Manoah also had shoulder issues and couldn’t pitch much in Spring Training games. Their closer and primary set up reliever, Jordon Romano and Erik Swanson respectively, got injured and are entering the regular season with elbow and forearm issues. Therefore, to start the regular season the Blue Jays’, pitching depth will immediately be tested to see if they can effectively reallocate the innings for two out of five starters and their number one and two bullpen arms. However, it is not all bad on the pitching front as José Berríos dominated in his starts, looking to build on his strong end to last season. Moreover, he added a cutter to his repertoire this offseason, adding a new way to attack hitters this season. In the bullpen, two returning relievers looked sharp as well with Génesis Cabrera and Yimi García both keeping their ERA under 2.50 this spring. Unfortunately for the Jays, having only three healthy pitchers put in impressive performances in spring may be a concern, especially considering the injuries they are facing. Starters Kikuchi and Bassitt have both looked subpar in their recent outings, with Kikuchi having a notable 16.43 ERA according to mlb.com resulting from a lack of command and home run issues. It could be Spring Training rust, but if they cannot fix their issues early on in the season it could spell trouble for the Blue Jays, especially since they are already missing key pitchers.
The Blue Jays saw some of their minor league pitchers perform well in Spring Training with veteran Paolo Espino performing well in his 17.0 innings, striking out 24 with a 2.65 ERA and prospect Bowden Francis managing a 3.38 ERA over his 18.2 innings. For the Jays this means they have a couple options to help in injury situations, which is very relevant to start the season. The Blue Jays have still not announced an official pitching staff for Opening Day as of the time of reporting but expect a new face in the starting rotation with Manoah out for Opening Day along with Gausman being questionable. That new face is likely to be Bowden Francis taking over Manoah’s spot to start the year because the Blue Jays opted to send Yariel Rodríguez to Triple-A Buffalo for his first 2-3 starts of the season. Considering he has not pitched much in Spring Training due to a lingering back injury, it may be best for him to start in the minors to get into pitching shape before making his MLB debut. He is very athletic and has shown the ability to limit baserunners and scoring so far which is why he is the ultimate wildcard for the Jays. He could join the team and struggle to translate his game to the MLB or he could put up similar numbers to his World Baseball Classic and NPB career to be a great addition to what is an already strong pitching staff when healthy. Bowden Francis on the other hand performed well in Spring Training and is a pitching prospect that Blue Jays fans should be excited to finally have on the team. He brings the possibilities that come along with a young player’s potential, which is exactly what the Blue Jays and their fans need this season.
On the opposite side of the ball, the Blue Jays’ position players through Spring Training and now entering the regular season are easier to evaluate. Offensively, baseball is often a top-heavy sport where on most teams, the first four or five batters in the lineup provide the majority of the offence throughout a season. Of course, depth hitting will separate a great team from a good team, but having better-than-average depth hitting does not get a team very far in a 162-game season unless the top of their lineup is producing as well. For the Jays, the top of their batting order is largely the same as it was last season. The first three bats are the exact same: Springer, Bichette, and Guerrero Jr. in that order. Following that, Turner hits in the cleanup spot followed by Kirk and Varsho. Springer has been declining over the years that he has spent in Toronto, which is only natural as he progresses through the back nine of his career. It is entirely possible that even though the Blue Jays are starting the season with him as the lead-off hitter, he may be moved down in the lineup a little if he is not performing. The question this season is how much he will continue to regress considering his OPS has dropped almost 200 points in his time with the Blue Jays, consistently every season. Bichette and Guerrero Jr. should be safe in their spots in the lineup and the question will be how well these two young stars perform. Both of them have contracts that expire in 2026 so this season and next are when they prove to the Blue Jays that they are worth an investment two years from now. Especially for Guerrero Jr. who had a disappointing season last year and hasn’t been able to find that MVP calibre hitting that we saw during the pandemic a few years ago; he must perform well and find his power again. However, all three guys leading off the lineup hit extremely well in spring training so look for them to start hot and with some confidence out of the gate.
In the middle of the order, Turner is hitting cleanup and will effectively do the same things that Brandon Belt did for the Blue Jays last season. He had a fairly average Spring Training; however, he is thirty-nine years old so he is another player that the Blue Jays are hoping can continue to perform at the level that he has performed in his last couple of seasons. Kirk and Varsho round out the middle of the lineup and will likely swap positions in the batting order throughout the season based on performance and playing time. In the games when Serven is behind the plate, Varsho will likely move up to the five spot on the batting card. Kirk has hit well this offseason and there are some signs that he could return to 2022 form when he was a rookie sensation. Especially with the other power-hitting Blue Jays catcher, Janson, sidelined with a broken hand, if Kirk is dangerous behind the plate again, the Jays will be significantly more dangerous on offense as he cleans up any leftovers that Turner may leave on base. Varsho has also looked good, and although he has not hit for a particularly high average, he had great production through the middle of March. The Jays will hope that as the regular season picks up, he can find consistency in his game since he has shown flashes of offensive prowess this spring that was reminiscent of his performances playing in Arizona before coming to Toronto last season.
Entering the Regular Season
This season, the Blue Jays will be relying on their player’s ability to fix their offensive issues from last season without many outside additions. Turner’s addition should keep the top of the lineup deep enough to be a threat, and there is hope that Kirk and Varsho could provide some extra offence this season after poorer-than-usual performances in 2023. Look for Bichette to be as consistent as ever, hitting for an extremely high average while adding around two dozen homers as the team’s primary offensive threat. Hopefully, Guerrero Jr. finds his power again and gets in that Blue Jay MVP conversation alongside Bichette. On the pitching side, Gausman should be as steady as ever when he comes back, and Berrios is showing the potential to be right behind Gausman in the second spot in the pitching rotation considering his role as the Opening Day starter and strong Spring Training. The Jays will need to survive the early parts of this season with a plethora of pitching injuries, but if their staff performs on the whole, the same level as last season, this Blue Jays team will have a chance…. This is if the offence can step up when it counts.
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