The Superbowl this year has turned out to be an interesting matchup between two teams that have had very different journeys to reach this point of the season. On one hand, there are the Kansas City Chiefs, the reigning Superbowl champions who looked at defending their title coming into this new season. They had a fairly underwhelming season overall but still remained a solid team that was likely circled on most of their opponents’ calendars. They were the third seed coming into these playoffs but with their 11-6 record, they were only one win ahead of the seventh-seed Pittsburgh Steelers. They have two iconic parts of their team, with the best quarterback in the league under center in Patrick Mahomes along with arguably the best tight end ever in Travis Kelce. On the other hand, there are the San Fransisco 49ers. They were coming into this season after a very difficult end to their previous season. They were blown out of the playoffs in the Conference Championship game against the Philadelphia, after all their quarterbacks were injured. They had questions at the quarterback position with multiple now-healthy quarterbacks vying for the starting role, which was eventually won by sophomore play caller Brock Purdy. However, the two know their strengths. While Kansas is popularly known for a handful of all-time elite players, San Fransisco is made up of a cohort of high-level players on both sides of the ball. This contrast is seen well as they were the number one seed in the NFC at 12-5, clearly an elite team, but they have a very different style of quarterback than Patrick Mahomes since Purdy is not as much of a unique, stand-out arm talent when compared to Mahomes. Purdy was drafted last in his year, also known as Mr. Irrelevant, and has faced the stigma and challenges that come with that every step of the way. It will be an interesting Superbowl between two teams that are contrasts to one another but very talented, and here are my picks and predictions for the match-up!
Important Performances
The Superbowl can be heavily influenced by some players on the field, and although it is a team game, there are some game breakers that may completely change the trajectory of the game in the blink of an eye. First on this list is of course going to be Patrick Mahomes, followed by his contemporary, Brock Purdy, on the other sideline. With the quarterback being involved in every offensive play, it is obvious that they will have the largest opportunity for impact. Mahomes has been to the Superbowl before, and he has that winning experience. This is key in tense moments; we know that he can stand up to the pressure. Moreover, he has a special ability to make his offense work based on his own pure skill and we will look for that as well on Sunday. However, ball security is important, which has been shown in his previous games this postseason, so do not expect him to go out and throw for over 300 yards unless Kansas ends up trailing by a fairly large amount in the second half. He will want to share the ball around and practice good ball security as much as he can to drive his team to the win. We can expect the same out of Brock Purdy. I expect both quarterbacks to focus on ball security and managing their offence more than an individual great performance. On top of that, both teams will want to establish the run, and with both sides having solid running backs, expect both offensive coordinators to mix in a fair few running plays, especially early in the game.
Speaking of the running backs, keep an eye on Christian McCaffrey for the 49ers as he will look to put up a good performance to elevate his team to the win. According to teamrankings.com, the Chiefs are ranked fourth against the pass this season but seventeenth against the rush this year, so the 49ers may look to run the ball with their superstar McCaffrey more often. He is also effective in the passing game when given the opportunity. The Chiefs’ primary back, Isiah Pacheco is also a dual threat out of the backfield and similarly to McCaffrey, he is one of the best offensive players for the Chiefs. Especially with issues this season with concentration drops from the Chiefs wide receivers, running back Isiah Pacheco has been a great and consistent option that the Chiefs have not been afraid to use. I expect both teams to use their running backs early and often to get themselves settled into the game.
In terms of defence, the Chiefs are going to need inspired performances to counter the plethora of weapons that the 49ers possess. L’Jarius Sneed and Trent McDuffie will need to lock down Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk in the secondary as much as possible to force Purdy to use his other options, and Chris Jones is going to have to lead the linemen to a performance that brings pressure on Purdy and moves blockers to stop the run game. The 49ers are a team well-known for their defence in contrast to the Chiefs but need to ensure they play up to their potential if they want to secure themselves the Lombardi trophy. In the first two quarters of the NFC Championship versus the Detroit Lions, they had trouble putting pressure on Jared Goff, which paired with missed tackles by linebackers and in the secondary, they were getting dragged 24-7 going into halftime. They were able to pull it together in the second half, holding the Lions to only seven points, but they will not get away with a similar performance against a quarterback of Mahomes’ calibre. Look for Fred Warner to step up from his middle linebacker position to lead the defence in a continued resurgence.
The game itself is likely to be a close matchup, however, there is always potential for game-changing plays whenever two juggernauts go head-to-head. The following are some of my favourite bets to play for Superbowl LVIII.
Anytime Touchdown Scorer: Travis Kelce +100: FanDuel
This pick is one that I rushed to place the second that odds for the Superbowl came out. Travis Kelce has been playing with Mahomes for years and is his number-one option in the red zone. He is a big guy that also has sure hands, and he uses that combo to his advantage. He has not had his usual calibre of season but in the last two games he has had three touchdowns. His usage also increased significantly last game with 11 catches on 11 targets. As aforementioned, in the Superbowl, I expect Mahomes to go to his trusty tight end again and again, giving Kelce many chances to score that touchdown! Moreover, in his previous three Superbowl appearances, he had two touchdowns and, in the 2021 finals, where he did not score, he had 133 reception yards. I do not expect the occasion to bother him at all considering his experience, so I expect him to score. Something to note is, that due to this comfort with the occasion, he is likely to be an early target since Mahomes will want to avoid drops from a nervous receiver. Therefore, if you’re looking for a bet with longer odds, I would consider Kelce First Touchdown scorer rather than the Anytime Touchdown prop that I prefer taking!
Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards: Under 262.5 -110: Fanduel
This pick is not nearly as intuitive as the Kelce touchdown pick, but the stats and situation all back it up, even if it’s a bit difficult to put the money down on. Mahomes has not passed for more than 262.5 yards all post-season. He ended on the hook with 262 against a questionable Miami defence and since then has thrown for 215 and 241 yards against Buffalo and Jacksonville, respectively. This is not to say that he has not been playing well, but in the playoffs, he clearly does not care about individual stats, he just wants to do whatever he must to ensure a win. This includes handing it off to his running backs, but also a greater willingness to scramble when needed as we see he does at a higher rate in later-round playoff games according to StatMuse. This takes the pressure off his arm and since defences are rightfully scared of his passing ability, these running opportunities are often available for Mahomes, especially in man coverage. Another thing to keep in mind is that ball security will be a huge factor for both teams here, which means Mahomes will be less likely to take deep shots downfield unless he has a man wide open. In these situations, he will likely scramble rather than throw a 50/50 ball into coverage and risk a turnover. These lines are usually sharp, but I think Mahomes is more likely to finish closer to the 250-yard passing mark, but this line has been driven up by the public who are notorious for favouring overs, especially in big games.
Superbowl Winner Pick: San Fransisco 49ers -125: DraftKings
Finally, the pick that tops them all - the Superbowl winner! I think that San Fransisco is going to win, but I by no means think it will be a blowout. This game is going to go down to the wire because Patrick Mahomes is on the other side of this result. However, I believe that the overall team makeup of San Fransisco is better than Kansas City’s team, and that will get the job done. However, Mahomes is the best quarterback in the league on any given Sunday, so you are never sure. On the other side, Purdy has been underrated all season long with people doubting him and attributing his success to his system and the players around him. Regardless of whether you are pro-Purdy or not, I think that the system that he is in and the players around him were good enough to get the number one seed, and I look to them to be that once more to end their season. Finally, in the worst case, I trust Purdy to go out there and make plays when necessary. You cannot forget to consider the show he put on in the clutch during the second half of the NFC Championship game, lead his team up the field for three touchdowns and two field goals to win their spot in Vegas this weekend in a dramatic comeback. Give me the San Fransisco 49ers to win Superbowl LVIII!
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