By: Jovan Popovic
Edited By: Jack Hinde
Thus far in the 2020-2021 offseason, the Blue Jays have been linked to almost every major player available, from Lindor to Springer to LeMahieu to Snell to Bauer. More recently the team added JT Realmuto to that list, which was a head scratcher for many, as the catching position is quite possibly the deepest position the Jays have. Realmuto doesn’t seem to have much of a market, especially with the Mets — whom he was expected to sign with — having turned their attention to James McCann. With a possibly heavily lowered price tag, the Jays have unexpectedly become interested in the 29 year old backstop.
So, why the interest in Realmuto? Atkins and co. believe that the Jays will be ready to contend in 2021, and plan on bringing in as many “high impact” players as possible to make that happen. Although catching isn’t a priority for the team, Realmuto perfectly fits the description of a high impact player, having been an offensive force in 2020 with great defensive metrics to improve his stock even further.
Obviously Realmuto is a top tier free agent, but a team can’t just chase all the top dogs, it’s just unrealistic. However, this just might make sense. In 2020 he finished with a .266/.349/.491 slash line accompanied by 11 home runs and 32 RBI. Not the most elite numbers in the league, but easily among the best for catchers, a position recently known for a lack of production offensively. Behind the dish Realmuto finished with -1 defensive runs saved above average (DRS), which would have been tied for third on the Jays in 2020, and second in Jays catchers, only sitting behind Reese McGuire. He threw out a career low 25% of runners this year — still 1% above league average — but is only a year removed from a league leading 47% caught stealing rate in 2019. His prime defensive value however comes in his ability to pitch frame, which Jays fans are very familiar with after having watched Russell Martin just a few short years back. Realmuto finished second in the league in pitch framing, having been especially effective off the plate (side to side). This would be huge for a team whose biggest weakness comes in the form of pitching, especially since the current starter (Danny Jansen) finished 63rd in the league in this metric.
Clearly Realmuto would be a huge upgrade, but what would happen to the rest of the organizational depth if Realmuto were to join Toronto? Currently the Jays feature a five catcher mix on the 40 man roster, up from only two as of opening day 2020. Of these five, Danny Jansen, Reese McGuire, and Alejandro Kirk have major league experience, while Gabriel Moreno and Riley Adams were recently added prospects to keep them from rule five draft eligibility. All five have made the Jays top 30 prospect list at some point in their career, and Kirk (6), Moreno (8) and Riley (22) remain on the list today. All five of the listed catchers are currently 25 years of age or younger, and hold a high trade value, which is exactly what the team is banking on in a potential Realmuto signing. The Jays have several holes, and having the ability to trade young catchers becomes highly useful, and could potentially be used in trades for highly sought after players, such as Blake Snell, Francisco Lindor, Kris Bryant, and Joe Musgrove.
Danny Jansen has taken the starting role for the Jays in the last two seasons, but his value might be lower than any other catcher on the team. Both years in the starting role have been an offensive disaster for Jansen. He holds a career slash line of .208/.297/.358, and other than a breakout 2018, he has never held a good track record as an offensive player. Defensively it doesn’t get any better. Jansen finished the season with -4 DRS, and only managed to throw out 23% of runners, consistent with his 25% career average (league average typically sits around 27%). As mentioned earlier, he finished 45th in the MLB in framing, having struggled with pitches on all four corners, especially at the top of the zone. Being only 26 years old, he may still hold some value, but it is minimal. Prior to a trade however, the team has to figure out whether they would be selling low, or whether they would be giving up on a lost cause while he still holds some value.
Reese McGuire had a dreadful season offensively in 2020, but it may be a poor representation of the kind of player he is. The former first round draft pick only managed to hit to a .073/.073/.146 slash line, but had a very limited opportunity to prove himself. Charlie Montoyo refrained from using McGuire much throughout the season, having heavily favoured Jansen. McGuire only managed to fit in 41 at bats, and always found himself at the bottom of the lineup. He only got into games twice a week, making it almost impossible to get any kind of streak going. Even when he did get up to the plate, he didn’t always get the chance he needed, having led the league in sacrifice bunts despite only participating in 19 games (some of which were 9th inning defensive replacements without an at bat). If one were to instead consider his previous years’ stats, they would find a completely different hitter.
In 2019 — where he had 97 at bats — McGuire hit to a significantly better slash line of .299/.346/.526, which were very similar/consistent with his rookie year numbers. Defensively McGuire only continues to provide value, having led the squad in DRS in 2020 (one of only two players with a positive figure). He finished with an incredible range factor per 9 of 11.03 — a career high — and threw out 50% of baserunners (8 attempts). McGuire didn’t compile enough defensive innings to qualify for the framing metric in 2020, but in 2019 he finished 37th out of exactly 100 qualified catchers, he placed third in the majors for pitches low in the zone, which is ideal for pitchers like Ryu, Roark, and Shoemaker, who frequently work in the bottom half. McGuire seems like a strong option for the team, but that's likely still in question due to such small sample sizes at the major league level, not only in 2020, but through his career. Still, between the strong statistical backing (despite the small sample size), his young age, and the fact that he is a left handed hitting catcher, he arguably holds the most value of any catcher the team has. He may still be worth holding on to however, as he could be an incredible platoon/backup option to Realmuto (righty and a lefty).
Alejandro Kirk was an overnight sensation once he was brought up to Toronto. He was a ranked prospect in the system heading into the season, but his stock really shot up after his debut. It was only 24 major league at bats, but Kirk hit for a .375 average with a .983 OPS. It was a real surprise for Jays fans to see him up in his age 21 season, as he had never played above A-ball before. Kirk’s bat has made noise for a couple years now in the organization, but his primary concern has always been his fielding. For a big guy, he can move, but his short and stocky build does come with some limitations. In his major league time, Kirk was unable to throw out a runner in four attempts, and finished 69th in pitch framing (of 83 eligible players), worse than any other Blue Jays catcher. His offensive potential is obvious, but many are unsure of his role going forward, as he really doesn’t look like a player who will remain a catcher his entire career. Trade value wise, teams may be interested in his bat, but his defense stunts his value. He is either this second most, or the most valuable catcher the team has.
Gabriel Moreno and Riley Adams are still prospects in the Jays organization, so fewer metrics are available for them, but there is still enough information for a basic evaluation. Moreno has only reached single-A Lansing thus far, but he seriously impressed after hitting .280/.337/.485 with 12 home runs in 307 at bats. Defensively the key impressive stat for Moreno comes in his ability to throw out base runners, which sat at 33% in 2019. Moreno holds tremendous trade value as a highly performing prospect, but still being multiple years away could limit the number of teams interested in acquiring him as a primary piece to a deal.
Riley Adams — a former third round pick of the Jays — is the final catcher on the Jays 40-man. In 2019 he reached AA for the first time, and hit .258/.349/.439 with 11 home runs over a 287 at bat sample size. He is most well known as a defensive catcher with an average bat, with his fielding rating being his highest at a 55 on the scouting grade according to MLB.com. With New Hampshire, Adams threw out 31% of runners, down from 46% and 40% in his previous two seasons in high A. Despite the positives he presents, he is likely the least valued Blue Jays catcher. He doesn’t present a significant strength in any category, and has the lowest top 30 prospect ranking of any of the Jays five catchers (including Jansen and McGuire from their prospect days). He does still hold trade value, but at this point the Jays might simply be best off holding onto him instead of others, especially considering how close he is to his debut.
Signing Realmuto may actually be a great idea. Despite a lot of depth, most of the catchers either aren’t ready, or simply aren’t good enough for a contending team. Jansen has shown that he really isn’t capable of holding ground as an everyday catcher, Kirk is too much of a question mark defensively, and Moreno and Adams simply aren’t ready. McGuire is arguably the closest player the team has to a regular starting catcher, but he hasn’t received enough consistent time for the team to truly know what kind of player he is.
Writer Opinion: It would likely be best for the team to refrain from signing Realmuto. The money would be more useful if put towards a more significant need, like Bauer or Tanaka to fill out the rotation. The team has lots of organizational depth, and even if they don’t sign Realmuto, they still have players that they can trade. After all, who could possibly use five starting caliber catchers? The final key point is the age of Realmuto. Catcher is a very strenuous position, and athletes who have played it their whole career tend to find themselves in a fast/larger decline: exhibit one, Buster Posey. As incredible as it would be to have the best catcher in the sport behind the dish for Toronto, it just might not be worth it.
Jovan Popovic
2nd Year Commerce Student
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