Written By: Jovan Popovic
Edited By: Colin Mari
In a crazy year where the Jays played in Toronto for the first time in over 600 days, acquired big time difference makers like George Springer, Marcus Semien, and Jose Berrios, won 91 games, and only finished fourth in their division (while missing the playoffs), there were several bright spots.
Many of the young assets stepped up this year, such as Vladimir Guerrero Jr, who had an MVP caliber year. The starting rotation finally came together with Robbie Ray having a huge comeback year, the acquisition of Jose Berrios, the emergence of Steven Matz, and the rookie sensation, Alek Manoah. The bullpen - arm barn - finally got the pieces that they needed in Cimber and Richards. Everything was incredible, and the city loved it.
One of the many bright spots the team had, came in the form of a one year $18 million “prove it” deal with Marcus Semien. The first time all-star had an unbelievable year in 2021, having finished with an all-time record for second baseman, hitting 45 home runs, accompanied by a slash line of .265/.334/.538. He will undoubtedly win the silver slugger.
In addItion, Semien will likely take home a gold glove award after finishing the year with 11 DRS at second, and one DRS in limited time at shortstop. He also found himself in the 88th percentile for outs above average (OAA), to further prove his incredible defensive year.
As incredible as his season was, it comes with one major issue: he may have priced himself out of Toronto. After potentially two top three finishes in MVP voting in the past three years, he has defined himself as a top tier player in the league, and is largely considered one of the best SS/2B options available on the market. After having hired mega agent Scott Boras as well, Semien has made it clear that getting paid is the top of his priority list, and could come at a cost as high as $200 million.
Beyond price, Semien seems unlikely to return to Toronto for two more reasons. Firstly, he has stated many times to the media that he wants to return to shortstop, which the Jays just aren’t willing to do with Bo Bichette having secured that role. Secondly, Semien has voiced many times his displeasure at being away from his family, who is located in Oakland, California. With teams like the San Francisco Giants and Los Angeles Dodgers interested in his services, it would be a surprise to find him playing north of the border again next season.
So, Semien has left for San Francisco. Now what?
The Jays are left with two major offensive holes to fill this offseason, third , and second base. They have two players potentially capable of holding ground, but neither are comparable to the departed. These players being Cavan Biggio, and Santiago Espinal.
In 2021 Biggio made the move from second base to third base as a result of the Semien signing. Unfortunately, this transition would only go well for one of those two players. Biggio struggled heavily as a third baseman, and seemingly couldn’t handle his new position. Even late in the season after significant improvement, it was clear that he would not be a suitable long term solution.
Offensively, Biggio didn’t further his case either, having arguably the worst year of his career. After making an adjustment in spring training to take a more aggressive approach, it severely backfired. He would experience career lows in every significant category, and an injury riddled season certainly didn’t help. However, with an offseason for recovery, a return to a more relaxed approach, and a transition back to second base, he could yet again become a valued asset for the team.
Santiago Espinal was a player the team didn’t think much of coming into the year, having sent him to AAA multiple times through the year. Despite this, he would finish the year as the starting third baseman, and as an asset to the lineup after hitting to a .311 average and a .781 OPS. Defensively, he was by far the most capable third baseman we had, finishing with 8 DRS, which may have made him a gold glove finalist should he have had a full season at the position.
As good as Espinal may seem, there is still significant doubt surrounding him. Reviewing his page on baseball savant, he only finished in the 33rd percentile for maximum exit velocity, and found himself in the dreadful second percentile in average exit velocity. A majority of his hits were ground balls, and his expected batting average (XBA) was only .268, suggesting much of his offensive production was luck, and that fans should expect a significant regression next season.
Although both seem to be fair options off the bench, or in platoon roles, it seems like a poor idea to begin the 2022 season with both Biggio and Espinal in everyday roles. With that being said, what are some of the options for next season?
With the Bluebirds looking to swing for the fences after a newly increased payroll, it appears most likely that they could attempt to sway a star into moving up north. In the free agent class, there are two names that come to mind straight away, both of whom are former third baseman who would have to revert back to their old position.
The first name is 2015 ROY winner and 2016 MVP winner and WS champion, Kris Bryant.
After his MVP campaign, Bryant found himself stuck in inconsistencies, and numerous up and down seasons. He has only seen two all-star games in the last five years, and looks like a shadow of the star he once was. However, he is still a strong offensive producer, and defensively looks like a league average player at worst (at 3B). Not having to worry about the lack of capable arms at third is a big victory for the Jays after having been such a concern through the 2021 season. Combine this with his versatility, and his big bat in the lineup, and the Jays have a fantastic addition who could fit right in with the team and its culture.
Although not comparable with his MVP season, Bryant still managed to finish the year with an .835 OPS and 25 home runs. He could easily replace Semien in the lineup (who is largely expected to recede), and fill a serious need for the Jays. With the Cubs (rebuilding) and the Giants (paying Semien instead) likely out on Bryant, the search for a new home is on. The only issue standing in the way is the payout: a well accolaided player like Bryant tag teaming with an agent like Scott Boras doesn’t usually indicate that they’re willing to settle, and he could wind up costing nearly as much as Semien.
The next former third baseman for the Jays to consider is Reds slugger, Nicholas Castellanos. The 29 year old first time all-star is coming off a huge campaign headed into free agency, which saw him post a slash line of .309/.362/.476, and an OPS at .939 with 34 home runs. He is easily one of the most feared bats available on the free agent market this offseason.
The drawback? Well, there’s actually two. First off, the last time Castellanos played 3B in a major league game was with Detroit in 2017, where he finished with a staggering -20 DRS. Defense is a major problem for him, and the Jays will have to decide whether or not they’re prepared to take that on. The second issue: This is the third Scott Boras client of the article. If there’s one clear cut message when it comes to Scott Boras, it’s that his clients get paid. The Jays would likely be interested in Castellanos, but should he find himself looking for a lucrative $100+ million deal as some expect, it just might not be worth it.
The third possible solution is no longer from the free agent market, but might be one of the most connected players to the Jays thus far in the early stages of the offseason. This player is Cleveland Guardians 3B, Jose Ramirez. The switch hitting perennial MVP candidate has been linked to the Jays for quite some time now after news broke that the Jays attempted to acquire him at the trade deadline in 2021. With two more years of cheap control, it’s clear why a contender would be looking for his services. He is likely the best option the Jays have. The only drawback with him is the price tag the Guardians have set.
A couple weeks back it was reported that the asking price for Ramirez was set: Alejandro Kirk, plus multiple top prospects, and multiple major league players. To put names to this deal, a potential ask would’ve been Kirk, Biggio, Pearson, and Groshans, which the Jays ultimately found was too much to give up. The question now has just become how much is Cleveland willing to drop that price? It could be all the difference between whether or not he ends up in Toronto, or in another big market like the Dodgers.
The final name is probably the most interesting, because of the history here. A final potential solution for the Jays 3B problems is Josh Donaldson. The 2015 MVP winner - the Blue Jays first MVP since George Bell in 1987 - just completed the second year of his four year $92 million deal. Offensively he had a strong season, carrying a slashline of .247/.352/.475/.827 with 26 home runs. Defensively he was a slightly above average putting up a very respectable year.
With the Twins rebuilding after having traded away numerous pieces during their disappointing 2021 season, the 35 year old no longer fits the blueprint, and could be next up on the chopping block. With such a large salary, the price for a trade likely isn’t that high either, which is what makes him a realistic target. The Jays could use this opportunity to kill four birds with one stone: (1) acquire a solid defending 3B with a plus bat, (2) rid themselves of the highly unnecessary Grichuk contract in this trade, (3) bring in a clubhouse leader and veteran, and (4) acquire a fan favourite to hype up the city of Toronto in their first full season back since 2019.
A Donaldson deal could be completed for as little as Grichuk and a fair valued prospect, such as Kevin Smith, CJ Van Eyk, or someone more major league ready like Cavan Biggio. For a team who doesn’t like moving prospect capital, and who’s payroll would increase by only $9 million as a result of this trade, this seems like a good fit.
Author recommendation
As appealing as it sounds to bring in a name like Kris Bryant or Jose Ramirez, the Blue Jays already have one of the best lineups in the league, even without Semien. They don’t need to drop $150 million on a replacement, or empty their farm system for a solution. That being said, it seems that Donaldson might actually be the best option for the team. They wouldn’t be giving up much, the salary doesn’t make that big a difference, and it’s an all around good fit. Even in the instance that he begins to rapidly age, there isn’t much risk, as he only has two more years on his contract. Although the situation may be unlikely due to the resistance of the front office to acquire former Blue Jays from the Anthopoulos era, this move would likely be the best for the team going forward.
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