Every pick in your fantasy draft matters. You need a home run on all your high picks, and you can’t afford to have any of your lower picks drag you down. With that in mind, let’s take an objective (with just a hint of subjective) look at some players to grab and some to avoid in this year’s draft.
Note: All data used in this analysis is from the 2017-2018 NBA season and is courtesy of www.basketball-reference.com and basketball.fantasysports.yahoo.com.
To start off, I will quickly introduce the ‘objective’ tool I put together for this analysis. Using MS Excel, I’ve put together a spreadsheet with the 2017-2018 stats of every player in the NBA. I then used a couple formulas to quantify a player’s rank in a given statistical category (categories include the ones this year’s fantasy league is based on). One extra formula then finds the average of a player’s rank across categories and sorts the players from highest to lowest. There are a few statistical outliers in the data that I will be ignoring in my analysis since this is just an assistive tool and is by no means definitive. Also it should noted, rookies are not included in these rankings. A copy of the spreadsheet can be found here. In my objective analysis, I will be comparing a player’s rank in my system (CAT Rank) versus their current Yahoo rank in order to categorize them as overrated or underrated. Additionally, I’ll be throwing in a few of my own subjective thoughts as well.
STATS BEING USED IN THIS YEAR’S LEAGUE
Field goal percentage (FG%)
Free throw percentage (FT%)
3-point shots made (3PM)
Points scored (PTS)
Total rebounds (REB)
Assists (AST)
Steals (STL)
Blocks (BLK)
Turnovers (TOV)
Players to Target (Picks 1-50)
If you’re fortunate enough to land the top pick, you can’t go wrong with KD. Broad category coverage (6.8 REB, 5.4 AST, 1.8 BLK), top-notch scoring (26.4 PTS) and elite efficiency (.516 FG%) are Durant’s hallmarks. Get over your snake-bias and take him.
As 3-point marksman go, they don’t get much better than Washington’s ace-sniper. In addition to his high volume three point shooting (1.8 3PM) and elite efficiency (.503 FG%), Porter offers surprisingly nice rebounding numbers (6.4 REB) and takes care of the ball (1.0 TOV). With turnovers being the sole negative category in this year’s league, good players that take care of the ball should be coveted...sorry Westbrook. If Porter is available in the teens of the draft, take a swing on him.
One of the bigger discrepancies in my ranking system, Vucevic should not be ignored if he falls to you. Vucevic has been a stat sheet stuffer for years (.475 FG%, 16.5 PTS, 1.0 STL, 1.1 BLK, .819 FT%, 9.2 REB, 3.4 AST), but this past season he also added a healthy dose of threes to his arsenal (1.1 3PM). Given that the Magic continue to do very little to bolster their incredibly boring offense, expect Vucevic to keep getting lots of touches. If he’s still there in the 30’s or 40’s, snag him before someone else does.
Players to Avoid (Picks 1-50)
Oh Westbrook our holy chucker of bricks. Despite all that energy and tenacious competitive spirit, Westbrook’s rough shooting (.449 FG% but only 1.2 3PM) and chronic turnover problems (4.8 TOV) really hurt his fantasy value. With Carmelo Anthony gone, expect Westbrook to be heaving more tough shots and turning the ball over even more this year. In addition, we’ve finally seen Westbrook start to show signs of wearing down. He’s coming off arthroscopic knee surgery, and his health for the start of the regular season is questionable. If you need a guard in the 20’s obviously don’t pass him up, but don’t reach for him early in the draft.
Much like Westbrook, Booker suffers from severe Mamba-mentality in his shot selection and decision making. It’s hard to think of many 25 point per game scorers that could put up a PER of 18.1 (not entirely relevant here, but I’m making a point). Again, Booker will put up stats- and he does at least give you quality volume from three (2.7 3PM)- but his efficiency (43.2% FG%) and carelessness with the ball (3.6 TOV) tank his fantasy contributions. In addition, Phoenix brought in high-profile rookie Deandre Ayton, who is bound to take away some possessions from Booker. Expect his counting stats to take a hit unless he ups his efficiency, which is by no means a guarantee. Similar to Westbrook, if you find yourself in need of a guard later on in the draft, pick up Booker. Just don’t expect him to carry your team.
I’m sure I’m going to catch some flack on this one, but bear with me. Embiid is obviously better than the #47 rank my system assigned him. But like the above players, I don’t think he’s someone you should chase in the draft. Number one on Embiid’s list of issues is of course turnovers (3.7 TOV). And while his overall efficiency is solid (.483 FG%), Embiid isn’t a high volume 3-point shooter (1.0 3PM), and he’s even hinted that he plans on taking fewer threes this season. He’s also an underwhelmingly average free throw shooter (.769 FT%). Not to mention his less that clean health history. Take Embiid only if he is an extremely obvious pick once he falls to you. He’s not MVP level yet, despite what he likes to believe.
Players to Target (Picks 51-150)
I think people must simply forget that Wesley Matthews exists, because that Yahoo rating is pretty criminal. Over the years Matthews has built himself a solid reputation of playing a lot, and reliably putting up numbers. He’s a consistent scorer (12.7 PTS), reliable free throw shooter (82.2 FT%), holds onto the ball (1.3 TOV) and makes threes (2.4 3PM). The only real knock on Matthews is his spotty efficiency (.406 FG%), but expect that to improve a bit this year with an improved Mavericks team. Matthews should be locked into the starting two position to start the season with Dallas, and if he’s available to you somewhere in the early to mid-100’s, take him. Apparently everyone else forgot about him.
After returning from a nasty injury and some nastier drama last season, Nikola Mirotic proved to be a key asset for a surprisingly good Pelican’s team. With a full season alongside Anthony Davis, expect Mirotic to be central figure in the Pelican’s offense. The versatile wing is a volume 3-point shooter (2.5 3PM), a great rebounder (7.4 REB), efficient (.447 FG%) and isn’t sloppy (1.0 TOV). Consider using a pick somewhere in the 50’s on Mirotic.
The diminutive Collison has always been a sneakily efficient point guard, but last season he took a big jump in his new role with the electric Indiana Pacers. Alongside Victor Oladipo in the backcourt, the two enjoyed a brilliant offensive season. Collison’s shooting numbers are great (.495 FG%, 1.4 3PM, .882 FT%), and he puts up solid numbers across the board (5.3 AST, 1.3 STL, 12.4 PTS) while again, keeping his turnovers low (1.2 TOV). With another season next to Oladipo, expect Collison to continue his solid play. If you need a second point guard in the 60’s range, pick up Collison.
Players to Avoid (Picks 51-150)
Gordon is the type of player that will feel like a steal when you see him in the 100’s range of the draft, don’t be tricked into that. Yes, Gordon shoots threes like a maniac (3.2 3PM, he’s a Rocket, you can’t blame him), but he won’t give you much else. Gordon turns the ball over a lot for someone who doesn’t do a lot of playmaking (1.9 TOV, 2.2 AST), is a non-existent rebounding or defensive presence (2.5 REB, 0.6 STL, 0.4 BLK), and his threes don’t make up for his inefficiency (.428 FG%). Take Gordon somewhere in the mid to late 100’s, but don’t be looking for him.
Whiteside does grab boards like a monster and his efficiency is nothing to sniff at (11.4 REB, .540 FG%). Unfortunately, that’s where Whiteside’s contributions end. His scoring and playmaking amount to almost nothing given his high profile (14.0 PTS, 1.0 AST), not to mention his free throw shooting leaves a lot to be desired (.703 FT%). Whiteside’s signature block numbers also seem to have vanished in the last two seasons (3.7 BLK 2016, 2.1 BLK 2017, 1.7 BLK 2018). Whiteside is stuck being the best player on the Miami Heat by default, a position he really isn’t meant to fill. Take a flyer on him in the 100’s if he’s still around, but he’s too one-dimensional to warrant being a target for your team.
In much the same mold as Whiteside, Howard will bring you sexy rebounding numbers, and not much else. While his overall counting and efficiency stats are better than Whiteside’s (16.6 PTS, 12.5 REB, 55.5 FG%), he also turns the ball over a lot (2.6 TOV). Additionally, his horrific free throw shooting (.574 FT%) and obvious lack of a three point shot can’t be ignored. Howard has moved on to yet another team this year (Washington), and it’s fair to expect his counting stats to go down as well. In Washington’s starting lineup he’s certainly the fourth option behind John Wall, Bradley Beal and Otto Porter Jr. His touches will be down from this past season in Charlotte, and his defense is nothing like it once was (1.6 BLK). Take Howard somewhere in the 100’s if you need rebounding numbers, but there are superior all-around big men options available.
By: Jack Hallman and Khashayar Akbari
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