As we watch Klay Thompson sink 14 three pointers in a game and Trae Young average 5.6 three point attempts per game in his rookie year, the progression of the NBA offense becomes all the more apparent. Today’s games are filled with countless off-ball screens and dizzying passes with a clear goal in mind - to find the open shooter for a catch-and-shoot jumper. As analytics have taken over the league, it’s become clear that having players with the skill to nab that extra point on a possession is one of the most valuable assets a team can have.
It seems crazy to think that it was only 10 years ago that we had an NBA finals dominated by a play that seems lost in the repertoire of many modern teams: the isolation. In 2008, Kobe Bryant and Paul Pierce battled time and time again on the perimeter while Pau Gasol and Kevin Garnett jockeyed for a deep post position on almost every half court set.
(Kobe Bryant isolates against Paul Pierce in Game 1 of the 2008 NBA Finals)
What happened in the past decade that has made teams so much less reliant on players’ one-on-one ability to score?
What are Isolations?
Isolations, in short, are a basketball play in which an offensive player decides to take their defender away from their teammates and attempt to score points without assistance. The ball handler’s teammates try to lead their matchups as far away from the play as possible to allow the scorer to “work his magic.” The beauty of isolation is that there is an extremely low chance of a turnover and an extremely high probability of the offense being able to get a decent shot attempt off. In the 2017-2018 season, isolation possessions had an 8.78% turnover rate compared to a 14.4% turnover rate for all offensive possessions.
There are a few situations in which isolations are used very heavily. When a possession has not worked out to plan and the team is at the end of the shot clock, the best player often performs an isolation to bail out the offense. Isolations are often used when there is an apparent one-on-one mismatch in size or skill, or if the defender is in foul trouble. Players on a hot streak may call for an isolation as a “heat check” of sorts. Finally, if the offense is in a slump, an isolation may be used to get a reasonable chance at a basket to build some momentum.
(A botched possession ends in an isolation for LeBron James in the closing minutes of Game 5 of the 2007 Conference Finals. James was on an incredible streak here, as he scored the final 25 points for the Cavs to bring them to victory.)
The reason isolations have fallen out of favour, put simply, is that they are typically a far less efficient way for teams to put points on the board than the offensive sets we see in today’s NBA. As of November 23, teams are scoring a median of 1.08 points per typical offensive possession this season. Of the players who averaged over 2.5 isolation possessions per game and played more than 41 games in the 2017-2018 season, only three players in the entire league scored 1.08 or more points per isolation.
Isolations are the simplest offensive possessions for defenses to predict and set up for, and are generally considered inefficient for all but the most skilled of players. Only three teams utilized isolations for greater than 10% of their possessions; in contrast, the 10% isolation rate was eclipsed by over half of the teams in the league from 2003 until 2013 (with the 2005-2006 Lakers topping the list at an astounding 20% isolation rate). This offensive trend has proven to be effective for all teams - the decrease in isolation rates and increases in three-point shooting have increased the league’s scoring average by over 10 points per game over the last 10 years.
When are Isolations effective?
Despite all of the inefficiencies that isolation seems to bring the table, it is still utilized with great effectiveness by a few teams and is extremely important to team success in certain situations. The Houston Rockets scored 1.12 points per isolation possession last season. No other team has scored greater than 1.00 points per isolation possession in a season since isolation stats have been recorded! James Harden and Chris Paul were historically effective in this type of play, averaging 1.22 and 1.10 points on 10 and 5.1 isolations per game, respectively. Teams with players skilled enough to isolate effectively tend to use a multitude of screens in order to create advantageous matchups to exploit the defense.
(James Harden calls for a screen to create a size mismatch with JJ Barea)
Strategies like these create today’s need for versatile defenders who are able to successfully switch onto multiple players. Although it is early in the 2018-19 season, teams have been able to use isolations more efficiently than in the past, as eight teams are scoring greater than 1.00 points per isolation possession.
Perhaps the most prominent moments in which isolations are used are plays of paramount importance, such as in the closing minutes of tight games. In the 2017-2018 regular season, only one team had over 50% of its field goals unassisted; the number of teams to surpass 50% UAST FGM increased to 14 in “clutch moments” (the last 5 minutes of games with a point differential of 5 or less).
In these moments, every possession matters. The near-guarantee of isolations to provide a decent shot attempt with a low chance of a turnover is very attractive to teams in the waning minutes of close games. This is the reason that, when a possession is important at the end of a game, the ball is often given to the best player to beat their defender one-on-one.
Iso-ball in playoffs
The playoffs involve a very different style of play compared to the regular season. In a seven game series, defenses are able to adapt to the offensive schemes they see, making set plays less and less effective as the series wears on. When this inevitably happens, teams are much more reliant on isolations. In the 2017-2018 season, playoff teams increased their isolation rates by an average of 40%. This huge reliance on individual scoring talent is why star power is so important in the playoffs. Every championship winning team since 2001 has had at least one player averaging over 16 points with over 45% of their made field goals being unassisted (This trend would likely extend much further in history, but these types of statistics were only recorded from 2001 and onwards). The playoffs often differentiate the good scorers from the great ones - having the capability to pause the flow of the game and let individual talent dominate is one of the most important skills in basketball.
While teamwork is definitely an essential quality to ensure basketball success, sometimes it’s absolutely necessary to turn things into a glorified game of one-on-one. There will be days or weeks when the team’s typical offensive strategies just aren’t working due to a lack of shots being made all around (see: Boston Celtics, November 2018). In these times, “inefficient” players such as Devin Booker and Donovan Mitchell may be some of the most valuable players around. While isolation doesn’t often produce attractive stats for fantasy players or the exciting ball movement concluding in an open three pointer, it’s too important a facet of the NBA to ignore. Unsuccessful offensive possessions, close fourth quarters, and most importantly, the playoffs, make talented individual scorers more essential to a team’s success than basic analytics might indicate.
Stats retrieved from: stats.nba.com and basketball-reference.com
By: Paolo Lansang and Khashayar Akbari
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