The Toronto Maple Leafs have started their season off 7-3-0, currently sitting 1st in their division, and 2nd overall. Their early success largely stems from their disproportionately high offensive numbers. The Leafs already had a very strong offensive core, but with the addition of John Tavares, their offence is definitely in the conversation for being the best in the league. On the contrary, their defence and goaltending has been subpar to say the least. Other than Morgan Reilly’s stunning offensive performance, the Leafs’ blueline has been nothing to write home about. I’m going to discuss the strengths and weaknesses of this Toronto Maple Leafs team as shown in their first 10 games, to assess how good they will actually be this year.
The Unbalanced Offence
It’s no secret that this Leafs team is driven by their remarkably strong offence. The Leafs lead the league in goals for with a whopping 38 in just 10 games. Despite their high scoring numbers, they really aren’t generating that many shots. They are currently 15th in the league for shots per game (as seen below) with a shooting percentage of 9.88% putting them 6th overall.
These results raise the question, where are all these goals coming from? I believe the high number of goals generated by the Leafs this season are a result of two things; the quality of shots they produce, and their exceptional powerplay.
The Leafs are 2nd in the league in expected goals for, which is a metric that predicts shot quality based on shot type, distance from the net, shot angle, and rebounds. The Leafs may not always outshoot their opponents, but they do seem to take higher quality shots. The figure above shows a map of all of the shots taken by the Leafs so far this season. As you can see, shown by the large red shape in the middle, the Leafs get a large proportion of shots directly in front of the net. These are very high quality shots and most likely account for a large percentage of their goals. Additionally, this Leafs team has had a disproportionate amount of goals coming from their first and second lines, with little to no help from the bottom six. The top six forwards have 27 of the 32 goals scored by forwards. To put that into perspective, The defensive pair of Reilly and Ron Hainsey has scored more goals than both the third and fourth lines combined. This sounds very bad for those bottom six players, but by no means is this going to last. In the last game in Winnipeg, Nazem Kadri got his second goal and Tyler Ennis got his first the game before, which are signs of good things to come.
As shown in the graph above, the Leafs are 2nd in the league in power play percentage, with 9 goals in their 28 opportunities. Their early success is primarily because of their new strategy of stacking the first powerplay unit with all their strongest players. Four of the five players on the Leafs first powerplay are in the top 20 for points in the NHL. The reason their power play is so deadly, is because everybody on the ice is a threat in their own way. Reilly quarterbacks the powerplay with Mitch Marner on his right side and Auston Matthews on his left. Tavares stays down low by the goal line with Kadri holding it down in the slot. Marner and Reilly are very creative and can use their exceptional vision to make plays that not many other players would. Tavares was 5th in the league last year in goals tipped in, so he is very effective in his position down low. You can see from the image below Tavares’ effectiveness and experience in his position down low. Furthermore, Matthews hangs to the left of Reilly and has the option to send it across to Tavares or Marner, or to use his quick release to beat the screened goalie. With this set-up it is very difficult for the opposing team to account for everyone and more often than not, the Leafs end up generating quality scoring chances and goals on the powerplay.
Disappointing Defense
Everybody knows the phrase; the best defense is a good offence. The Toronto Maple Leafs may just be the physical embodiment of that expression. Many of the games they won this season were purely by outscoring their opponents. The 7-6 Chicago game and 7-4 Dallas game are great examples of this. Obviously, the Leafs can’t just score away all of their problems, and this was evident in the St. Louis game where they lost 4-1. The Blues are a very strong defensive team and they love to cycle the puck down low on offence. The Leafs were a bad match against this team, and it showed on the scoreboard. This is just one game but it definitely has to be addressed if they want to have a long playoff run.
The Leafs have never had a particularly strong defensive game, and this year is no different. In the first 10 games they have 50.16% corsi, which is a measure of offensive and defensive zone possession, and that leaves them around the middle of the league. They are also 20th in the league in goals against per 60 minutes. The Leafs are by no means the worst defensive team in the league, but there is still lots of room for improvement. The fact of the matter is, the Leafs just don’t have any All Star defenceman. Reilly and Jake Gardiner are solid puck moving defenseman, and they have a some promising young defencemen, namely Travis Dermott and Igor Ozhiganov, but none of them have had a great enough defensive impact to make a difference on this team.
Reilly is the Leafs’ best defenceman, and he truly is an elite player, but most of his benefits come in the offensive zone. Reilly’s stats last year showed a relative corsi percentage of 1.93 putting him 74th out of all defencemen and a individual corsi per 60 minutes of 12.02 which put him 47th in the league for D. He is obviously not a liability but he can’t carry the team defensively. Gardiner is the Leafs second best defencemen, and despite his very weak showing in the series against Boston last year, he can handle himself somewhat in the defensive zone. Last year he showed a rel. Corsi of -0.8 and an individual corsi per 60 of 9.63, worse than both of Reilly’s stats. The young Dermott and Ozhiganov, haven’t played enough to get a good enough sample of their skills, but they definitely still need time to grow into the players they will be. I don’t think the Leafs need a star defenceman to make them a competitive team, but I do believe that it does mean that the entire team needs to step up. Defence may not be as much of an issue now, but once it gets to the playoffs, and goals are scarce, without strong defensive play the Leafs are going to get eaten alive.
The Matthews Factor
With a team like the Leafs, with so many star players, it is usually hard to pinpoint the one player that stand above all the rest. Auston Matthews currently has 10 goals and 16 points in just 10 games, meaning he is on pace for 82 goals this season, which is obviously unrealistic, but for now at least Matthews is looking like the best goal scorer in the league. It is also important to note that he is on a line with the previous fourth liner Kasperi Kapanen and 39 year old Patrick Marleau. Nothing against those two players, but they are a step down from Marner on Tavares’ line. Auston Matthews is a very special player, and he has the ability to take over any game. He had a very strong season last year and he looks even better this year. Unfortunately he suffered a shoulder injury in the first period of the Winnipeg game and did not end up returning and is poised to miss at least 4 weeks.
The Verdict
I have no doubt in my mind that the Leafs are going to be a good team this year, but good teams don’t win the Stanley Cup, great teams do. I definitely think that the Leafs have what it takes to be great, but it's just too early in the season to tell if they will reach their full potential. They do have a very strong team right now, that will only get better with the addition of William Nylander. Their early success is a positive, but it does not dictate how the rest of the season will go. The Leafs are going to have to work extremely hard and stay healthy to even get a chance to play for the Stanley Cup this year, but that’s no different from any other good team in the league. They are one of the about 6-8 teams that have a legitimate chance to win the cup this year. Unfortunately, 2 of these teams, the Tampa Bay Lightning and Boston Bruins, play in their division. The one thing I can conclude from these first 10 games is, the Leafs are going to be a very fun team to watch this year. I expect many highlight reel plays from this team, and though that may not lead to a championship, compared to the last decade of Leafs teams before Matthews arrived, it could be much worse.
Stats provided by nhl.com, corsica.hockey
By: Justin Tohana and Khashayar Akbari
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