Image Source: Washington Post
Written by: Matthew Fuda
Edited by: Noah Britt
Championship weekend is officially over and we now have our matchup for Super Bowl LIV. The Kansas City Chiefs of the AFC will take on the San Francisco 49ers of the NFC.
Two extremely talented rosters, with two very different histories. The Kansas City Chiefs have not been to the Super Bowl since 1969, whereas the 49ers have won 5 of them and are looking to tie the Pittsburgh Steelers and New England Patriots for the most titles all-time. Now that is not to say that the Chiefs have not been successful all these years while the 49ers have dominated this past half-century. As a matter of fact, the Chiefs have been the better team than the 49ers the past 5 years (66-30 vs. 38-58) having great regular season success with Andy Reid, but consistently coming up short in the postseason (Pro Football Reference). However, this year was different for both teams as the Chiefs beat their playoff demons while the 49ers finally achieved their potential and cruised to the Super Bowl.
The Chiefs fell behind early in both of their playoff contests, trailing the Houston Texans 24-0 in the Divisional Round and the Tennessee Titans by 10 points twice in the AFC Championship game. Yet here they are. It is no secret how they have got this far either. The Chiefs have one of the most explosive and dominant offences in the league led by last year’s MVP Patrick Mahomes and quarterback and receiving corps that includes the likes of Tyreek “The Cheetah” Hill and powerful tight end Travis Kelce. With this high-powered offense, they are never truly out of a game and can win any shootout as indicated by their 28.2 average points per game and +143 point differential (NFL.com).
Image Source: New York Times
On the other hand, the 49ers never trailed in either of their playoff games and dominated the regular season going 13-3. They did this in a fashion that was incredibly different than the Chiefs. The 49ers are a run-first team with an incredibly physical defence that boasts the likes of Richard Sherman at cornerback and potential Defensive Rookie of the Year Nick Bosa off the edge. To put it in perspective how different the 49ers are from the Chiefs, look no further than the championship games. Patrick Mahomes threw for 3 TDs on 23/35 pass attempts, while Jimmy Garoppolo, quarterback of the 49ers, only threw 8 times and did not throw a single pass in the 3rd quarter of that game. Instead, the 49ers had Raheem Mostert (one of their three running backs) rush for 220 yards and 4 TDs while completely dominating the Green Bay Packers. Regardless, both teams have found themselves in the Super Bowl and look to put their names in the history books.
Although both of these teams deserve to win the title, only one can come out on top and I have tasked myself with the unenviable position of predicting which team it will be. As mentioned previously, these two teams are extremely different in both their histories and playstyles. Kansas City is a team that typically starts off slow which is characteristic of groups coached by Andy Reid, but that does not seem to matter much. When the Chiefs score, they score fast as illustrated by their ability to come back from 24-0 in 9 minutes and 11 seconds against the Texans and score 28 points (NFL.com). They also have arguably the past passer in the game right now in Patrick Mahomes who is prolific at throwing and running the football too. He had a total QBR of 76.2 (on a scale of 0-100) in the regular season (2nd in the league) and leads the postseason in total QBR with an unbelievable score of 95.5 (ESPN.com). The passing game is elite without a doubt, but the Chiefs definitely do have weaknesses. They sport a fairly average running game totaling numbers of 98.1 rushing yards per game (23rd in the league) and not having a single running back accumulate over 500 total yards on the ground (NFL.com). On the other side of the ball, the Chiefs defence is definitely lacking in talent compared to the offense. However, they have been able to get the job done employing a “bend not break” type scheme by ranking 7th in the league in total points allowed, while being 17th in total yards allowed (Pro Football Reference). The only issue with this is that the defence may not be able to get a quick stop in crunch time or create a splash play for a turnover. Overall, the Chiefs have a fairly well-rounded team, and will most likely use their passing attack as a means to beat the 49ers this coming Sunday.
The 49ers are truly the opposite of the Chiefs since their strength lies in their rushing game and defence as mentioned before. Unlike the Chiefs who did not have a single running back rush for 500+ yards, the 49ers had 3. Matt Breida, Tevin Coleman and Raheem Mostert each had 623, 544 and 772 yards respectively (Pro Football Reference). They also finished 2nd in the league in rushing yards and first in rushing touchdowns with 23 per Pro Football Reference. Defensively the 49ers ranked second in defensive DVOA at -19.8% while also having the 2nd best pass defence (Football Outsiders). DVOA is a metric that calculates how much better a player or team is offensively above the average accounting for the situation. For example, yards in the red zone are more valuable than those between the 20 yard markers. Since it is an offensive stat, the more negative the percentage the better the defence is. Now the 49ers weakness lies in their passing and frankly, it is not all that terrible, just not as outstanding as their rushing attack and defence. They finished 13th in average passing yards a game despite boasting talented receivers Emmanuel Sanders and Deebo Samuel, plus a talented tight end in George Kittle. All that being said, this makes the 49ers’ strategy fairly clear. Unlike the Chiefs who want to score quickly and often, the 49ers want to limit the opposing team to short drives and hand it over to their offence where they can control the clock with their running game.
Image Source: Bleacher Report
Despite the defensive dominance of the San Francisco 49ers and their great running game, I believe that the Kansas City Chiefs will be the winners of SuperBowl LIV. They have the better quarterback and a defence that will make the stops when necessary. Based on their offensive prowess, their strategy will be to force the 49ers to throw the football instead of run, while trying to make this game a shootout. Come this Sunday, the Chiefs will finally have ended the 50 year SuperBowl drought, while the 49ers will have to wait another year to get the franchise’s 6th ring.
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