The first line is not the be-all end-all method of determining how good a team is. That being said, having an elite top line is definitely beneficial in generating offensive success. For some teams their success comes almost exclusively from their top three forwards, leaving the other three lines to stall the other team. While not the most effective, this strategy shows how favorable a superstar first line can be on an already good team. Today, I am going to have an in depth look at both the most effective and disappointing first lines in the NHL. The teams I have chosen recount many different situations where the first line is a large part of the team’s success or failure. In this editorial, I am going to try to analyze and explore what makes a first line effective and how teams are building their lines to succeed. Hopefully this will provide insight into how important the first line is for an NHL team and how difficult it is to succeed without a good one.
Toronto
The Toronto Maple Leafs stand out from most other teams because of their great forward depth; they seem to have two 1st lines. Although they usually would have two star-studded lines, injury issues (Auston Matthews) and a contract dispute (William Nylander) have left the Leafs with only one definite top forward line. Despite this, their first line is still quite formidable, with John Tavares centering Mitch Marner and Zach Hyman. This line is second in the league in goals for and third in corsi for. Marner and Tavares stand out as the two superstar names on this line being 2rd in the league in assists and 6th in goals respectively. In terms of shooting percentage, Tavares’ is very high while Marner’s is relatively low, so they should be expected to even out in the long run. Those who do not regularly watch the Leafs may not know who Zach Hyman is and of his contributions to this top line. At first glance, his 11 points in 25 games is not terribly impressive and it is not immediately clear how he fits with his linemates. His benefits clearly are not derived from his point production, but that does not discount him from being a valuable asset on this top line. Hyman’s role on the line is to get to the dirty areas of the ice and pressure the opposing defence, allowing Tavares and Marner to get opportunities they normally would not be able to. The Leafs’ first line has been very effective so far into the season allowing their team to thrive even without two of their best players. As long as they continue to play the way they have, with the addition of Nylander and Matthews, the Toronto Maple Leafs will be a very solid contender for the Stanley Cup this year.
Colorado:
The Colorado Avalanche are an odd case; their first line of Nathan Mackinnon, Mikko Rantanen and Gabriel Landeskog is the only driving force getting their team wins. These three players together have scored a total of 41 goals so far this season, amounting to over half of the goals scored by forwards on the Avalanche.
Each of these players is extremely good individually, but have combined to create what some may argue is the best offensive line in the entire NHL. Nathan Mackinnon centres this first line and leads them in scoring with 18 goals. Mackinnon proved his credentials as a top 5 forward last year, scoring 97 points in just 74 games, with a point per game average (ppg) of 1.31. Only Connor Mcdavid had a better ppg than him last season. Mikko Rantanen is the rookie right winger on the line, and he has already hit his stride in the NHL. Drafted 10th overall in 2015, Rantanen started playing for Colorado just one year later. Last season he scored 84 points, putting him 17th in the league. He currently leads the league in points and assists with 42 and 32 respectively, in 24 games played. Rantanen is a highly skilled, young forward, who uses his stickhandling ability and creativity to create offensive chances for his linemates. Finally, captain and left winger Gabriel Landeskog is a strong forward who uses his body to create space for his faster linemates. Leading the team in hits for forwards last season, he is a very intimidating player to play against. While the Colorado Avalanche's first line is a potent offensive weapon, the rest of the team must step up if they are to have any chance of making it far into the postseason.
Boston:
The Boston Bruins are one the best teams in the league. This is in part to their deadly first line, in Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand, and David Pastrnak. Arguably the most well-rounded forward line in the entire NHL, they have elite offensive talent and scoring ability while also possessing one of the best defensive centres in the past decade. Pastrnak is currently leading the league in goals with 19 in his 24 games played, and all three forwards have at least 23 points so far this year. As well as being able to drive offensive play, they are also a great line for suppressing the opposing teams scoring chances. This is mainly because of Bergeron who centres the line and has won the Selke Trophy four times, an honour which recognizes the forward who shows the best defensive ability in a given year.
Another reason this line is very hard to play against is that they seem to always be on the ice no matter what the situation is. They are a part of 1st power play unit like many other first lines however, they also assist in killing penalties. Bergeron and Marchand are usually the first two forwards to start on the PK, a challenge for any opposing team. The Bruins had the third best penalty kill last season with 83.7 PK% using that strategy. Not only are they very good at killing off the penalty, the opposition also has to worry about Marchand’s ability to utilize his speed and skill to generate his own offensive opportunities.
Unfortunately, Bergeron suffered an upper-body injury in the game against Dallas and is expected to be out for at least 4 weeks. While this is a great loss for Boston, Marchand and Pastrnak will have to play extremely well to continue the Bruins’ momentum in his absence. Their first line is losing a huge part of their defensive upside with the loss of Bergeron. Along with the fact that they are going to have to adjust with playing with a different centreman, it’s going to be very tough for this line to succeed with Bergeron gone.
Buffalo:
The Buffalo Sabres are a bizarre story this season, having finished dead last last year, they are now currently 1rd in the league, tied for points with the Leafs. This is quite the unexpected turnaround and this improvement can be most attributed to their first line of Jack Eichel, Jason Pominville, and Jeff Skinner. The chart above shows a collection of the top line’s stats so far in to the season. They are all leading the team in points, but they are also driving most of the play on the team as shown by their high relative corsi and expected goals numbers. An odd thing about this team is that for as many wins as they are getting, they really are not scoring that many goals, all things considered. They have only scored 73 goals putting them 15th in the league, right in the middle of the pack.
Jack Eichel centres this first line, and leads the team in points. Eichel does not get as much recognition as he should, since he is always being compared with Connor Mcdavid, who was drafted ahead of him in 2015. Although Mcdavid is obviously much better, it does not take away from the fact that Eichel is still an elite centremen and can do amazing things with the puck on his stick having scored 64 points in is 67 games last season. He only has 5 goals so far, but has a solid expected goals percentage and is only shooting at 4.9%, so his goal drought will most likely not last. The left winger on this line is Jeff Skinner who the Sabres traded for in the offseason. A solid offensive player for the Hurricanes for the past 8 seasons, Skinner has adapted well to his new surroundings and linemates. He is leading the league in goals with a shooting percentage 23.5%. This high percentage raises the question if his goal production is sustainable in the long run. Jason Pominville plays on the right side of Eichel, and provides experience as a 36 year old veteran. This line is very effective and as long as they keep playing well, the Sabres may actually be able to have a solid run in the playoffs come the end of the season.
Edmonton:
The Edmonton Oilers are a team that on paper really should not be as bad as they are. Despite receiving a total of four first overall draft picks since 2010, their management has made some very bad decisions and squandered these great opportunities. Even after these blunders, their core of players is not totally ineffective. They have the undisputed single best player in the NHL right now in Connor McDavid. However, this season they have had quite a bit of trouble trying to figure out who will accompany their star player. At the start of the season they had him playing with the another first overall pick in Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. They did not like how they were playing together so they switched him out for Leon Draisaitl, and put Drake Caggiula on the other wing. The table above shows Edmonton’s current first line’s stats. Their stats are respectable for a first line, but their team still is not consistently winning games. Draisaitl and McDavid are putting up solid numbers, but two players alone cannot carry a team throughout the season. The Oilers are a very skilled team, and they have an extremely special player in McDavid, but they are not using them to their advantage. If they cannot figure out how to maximize McDavid’s potential, and build a competitive team around their first line, their skill will all go to waste and the Oilers will continue on being a mediocre team.
Los Angeles:
The L.A. Kings have been a very disappointing team so far, and, are currently sitting dead last in the standings. Not too long ago the Kings were a solid playoff team, winning stanley cups in 2012 and 2014, but have since regressed and are now debatably the worst team in the league. A big reason why they are seeing such awful results is because they can’t seem to find a way to score. The Kings have just 50 goals in their 23 games played. Based on this, they are projected to only score 178 goals this season; an abysmal tally compared to their 237 goals last season. The graph below describes how poorly their season has gone compared to past seasons. (It is emphasized even more given that league goal totals have been consistently increasing since 2014).
Like Edmonton, they are also having trouble figuring out who will play on their top line. This is not unexpected for a team that is playing so poorly, as they are trying to change up their strategies to figure out what will work. They initially started with ex-KHL player Ilya Kovalchuk playing alongside Anze Kopitar and Alex Iafallo. Kovalchuk played in the NHL for 8 seasons until he decided to retire and play in the KHL as a result of the 2012 lockout. Kovalchuk began the season as a point per game player, but after the coaching change from John Stevens to Willie Desjardins, his production dropped tremendously and as a result, he is now playing on the fourth line. Kopitar is another underperforming player who is not playing as well as he might want to. Iafallo is the other winger on the line. He was an undrafted USHL player who was picked up by LA in the offseason.
This first line scored just 5 goals in total in their first 5 games so they decided to try to find a new top line. After trying many different line combinations throughout the rest of october, they finally decided on Kopitar centering Iafallo on the left wing and Dustin Brown on the right wing. Brown sustained a finger injury against the ducks early in the season, but after coming back at the end of October, his play has been promising. He is coming off a career high 61 point season last year, and currently has 12 points in 14 games. The LA Kings have had a truly abysmal start to this season. For them to have any chance of succeeding this year their top players are going to have to step it up and play to their full potential.
Chicago:
The Chicago Blackhawks are another team that has had a slow start to the season, sitting at the bottom of the standings. The Blackhawks are a team with some very skilled players, notably Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews. Despite this, their first line has been quite feeble thus far. They started the year off playing Toews with Dominik Kahun and Alex Debrincat. After many poor showings from this line they decided to play a big name line against the Minnesota Wild, with Toews centring Kane and Brandon Saad. They have been playing this line ever since but they still cannot seem to win any games.. They have only won two games in their past ten and none of those wins were with their new “superstar” line. This Line has seen some scoring success but it obviously has not been enough to get their team back on track. This is a prime example of a very strong first line that cannot compensate for the rest of the team being quite weak.
The Blackhawks used to be a consistently strong team that would always make a decent run in the playoffs, but it seems like those days are coming to an end. Their star players are still in their prime, but the team around them needs some work. Whether it be cap space issues or coaching problems, whatever is causing them to lose games needs to be fixed. They know it is not a first line problem but finding a good balance with a strong first line while keeping their offensive core deep enough to compete with good teams is a necessity for the Blackhawks to see any kind of improvement.
Conclusion:
The NHL has shifted towards a more skilled playstyle, emphasising a greater importance for teams to acquire young offensive talent. With this, the an elite first line has become almost more important than forward depth for some teams. While obviously a team would love to have both, many are only given the option of one, and an elite first line is becoming the more favourable option. This article covered many different teams with varying levels of success from their top three forwards. Well rounded lines like Boston are very effective at holding off the opposing team’s offense while also creating scoring chances of their own. Other teams are also following Boston’s movement of playing their top line forwards on the penalty kill. Toronto is one team that has adopted this strategy, putting Tavares and Marner on at the end of the pk to try to gain some momentum after a kill.
There have been some teams this year who have found unexpected success that is mostly as a result of their first lines playing so well. Colorado and Buffalo both had poor seasons last year but are now at the top of the standings, and they are being driven by their first lines’ exceptional play. The last trend that I noticed was that the teams that are playing poorly are also having trouble figuring out who to play on their first line. In addition, there are very few teams that have good first lines at the bottom of the standings, Chicago being one of them. This seems very logical as the teams who are not doing well are trying to adjust their strategies to find what will work. In the current state of the NHL, the success of a first line has a great influence on the overall success of a team. Although, the first line has become increasingly important, that does not mean forward depth is not also crucial. It is getting harder and harder to compete in the NHL, and having a good first line is just one of the things that a team needs if they want to to have a chance at the Stanley Cup.
all stats retrieved from nhl.com
By: Justin Tohana and Khashayar Akbari
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