After 15 weeks into the NFL season we beginning to see the true contenders pull away from their competitors. I am obviously speaking of the New Orleans Saints (12-2) , Los Angeles Rams (11-3) , and Kansas City Chiefs (11-3). All three almost seem to be a lock to win their division with the potential exception of Kansas City who are closely trailed by a highly competitive Los Angeles Chargers (11-3) team. The Saints however have found themselves atop many of the experts power rankings.
Let’s take a look the formula that New Orleans Saints which have propelled them to the top NFL hierarchy.
Run Game
A good portion of their success can be attributed to the emergence of their stellar backfield duo of Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara. Saints lead the league in rushing TDs with 22;12 of them being punched in by Kamara. The Saints like to pound Ingram down the middle for short gains as can be seen by the graphics below.
Kamara on the other hand is used much more laterally and you can see below that his routes are much more directed towards the sidelines. His smaller size and agility helps get him past opposing defenders.
Saints can be flexible with how they play the run game, often alternating between both backs every down. This keeps the offense aggressive and unpredictable as both players are given chances to catch their breath for the next down.
Receiving
The Saints’ wide receiving core is seen by many as the weakest of the bunch in comparison to the Rams and Chiefs. They too have recognized this flaw and have made mid-season attempts to bolster the roster by adding former Cowboy, Dez Bryant. His season however was tragically cut short as he tore his Achilles tendon in practice just a week after being signed.
The team does however still have Michael Thomas to rely on who has separated himself as one of the best wideouts in all of football. Thomas hauls in 11.9 yards per reception and is currently sitting at a catch percentage of 86.44%, which seems impressive but is more impressive when you consider his volume of targets.
* As of Week 14
Most players in this list have 15 less targets than Thomas (with the exception of Zach Ertz) and are generally not the number one option for their respective teams. Defenses are beginning to apply more pressure on him. Through the first 10 weeks he sat at an even more impressive 90.75% catch rate but has had his catch rate dip to 71.27% over the last 3 weeks.
There is upside as the attention he draws opens space up for other receivers. It likely has had the greatest impact on the short pass game to the likes of Kamara and Ingram. Kamara actually has the second most receptions, at 77 as the Saints like to run screen plays and checkdowns when Brees does not see anything he likes downfield.
Quarterback
Drew Brees this season has continued to embrace his growing role of being a gamemanager which is something that we first began to see last season. Quarterbacks that fall under the gamemanager umbrella are generally do not necessarily have great individual stats but focus on being consistent. That’s not to say Drew has lost his ability to make plays by himself, he is the all time yards leader, but there is less of a need with all the support he has this season from the running game and the defense. If we take a look at this season his usage is just down across the board when comparing to past years.
* 2018 are projected end of season totals
Despite his adaptation of this less glorious playstyle, he finds himself in the conversation for MVP. This is in large part due to the success of his team but also because of the his unparalleled efficiency this season. He also will likely finish the season with a career low in interceptions and career high in quarterback rating which currently is sitting at 116.8. The 116.8 is the highest rating for all qualifying player (min. 224 pass attempts) and would land him 6th all time in highest rating in a season if the season ended today.
Taysom Hill
Taysom Hill gets his own section because what he is doing is special and that is something that is very underrated.
Besides being the third string quarterback for the Saints, Hill has played as a running back, receiver and even on numerous occasions, as a kick returner. His ability to play numerous position means that opposing defenses are constantly guessing when he is on the field.
He has returned 14 kickoffs averaging 24.9 yards per return putting him 23rd in the league. He even won NFC’s special team player of the week (week 14) in large part due to this amazing block on this punt attempt by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. This block gave them amazing field position at a time that their offense was struggling. The energy he brings and his willingness to sacrifice to play all these different positions has the ability to really inspire teammates and can bring cohesion to a team with championship aspirations.
Run Defense
The last major foundational block that this team is built on is their stellar run defense. They currently top the league in rushing defense only allowing 1107 yards on the ground this season. This has forced their opponents into one dimensional offenses which is basically throwing the ball. This causes issues for teams that may lack quarterback and wideout talent and purely depend on the run game. Even teams with the talents struggle as they too need to establish a run game in order to open the field up for receivers. The most notable example of this is when the Los Angeles Rams played the Saints in week 9. The Saints’ defense held Todd Gurley, the reigning offensive player of the year and at the time, the second leading rusher, to just 68 yards on 13 attempts. Although he did score once on an 8 yard carry on the ground, we saw that his overall ability to affect the game diminished. The Rams had to play through Jared Goff who was playing well but simply could not outscore the Saints offense by himself.
Weaknesses
The Saints have struggled to defend the ball through the air. They are 4th worst in yards per pass attempt at 8.4. This is obviously an issue that is compounded as opposing teams are already opting to throw more because of the difficulty of running against this team. There has been some improvement since the arrival of left cornerback Eli Apple. In the seven games after his arrival, the Saints have only given up 17.1 points per game which is drastically better than the 27.1 they were giving up. Not all of the recent success can purely be attributed to Apple but he has really found a role on this team; something that he struggled to do on the New York Giants, his former squad.
Lastly, I want to mention the Cowboys who may have showed the league that it is possible to shutdown this offense. In their week 13 slugfest, the Cowboys held the Saints to 10 points, by far their lowest point total (second lowest total being 12). The Cowboys were ruthless in their pressure on Drew Brees, sacking him twice and forcing him to throw a interception. Fans that watched that game could see he was constantly under defensive pressure. He looked uncomfortable in the pocket and was constantly scrambling away from incoming defenders. QB pressure may be something opposing defenses want to emphasise in there schemes against the Saints although it should also be noted that it did help Dallas that they have a strong run defense that was able to keep Kamara and Ingram relatively quiet so they could focus more on attacking Brees.
Conclusions
This is a very good team top to bottom and have seemed to hit their stride this season after suffering an unfortunate divisional playoff loss to the Vikings last year. They will likely finish the season as contenders to win the Super Bowl this coming January. They hold the tiebreaker against their closest competitors in the Rams and will need to simply tie their record to secure home field advantage for the playoffs.
Stats received from pro-football-reference.com, nextgenstats.nfl.com, and footballdb.com
By: Jason Lam and Khashayar Akbari
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