Written By: Benjamin Presta
Edited By: Matt Conciatori
On November 29, 2021, soccer’s notorious star, Lionel Messi, was awarded the Ballon d’Or, given to the most outstanding player in soccer around the world based off club and country competitions in the calendar year. He carried a subpar Barcelona team — who is now seventh in La Liga in his absence — to third in the league, being in the running for the title the entire season. On top of this, he led Barcelona to a 4-0 win in the Copa Del Rey final, scoring twice and picking up man of the match in the process.
If that wasn’t enough, Messi led his home nation Argentina to the ever-elusive Copa America, tallying 4 goals and 5 assists in just seven games and averaging an 8.40 match rating, good for the top spot in all three categories. It’s safe to say Lionel Messi’s 2021 was successful. Despite not reaching the heights Barcelona may have desired in the UEFA Champion’s League, Messi, across competitions, led his squads to improbable levels.
But even with all of this considered, many fans are still deeming his 2021 Ballon d’Or as undeserved, noting that Robert Lewandowski of Bayern Munich should have taken home the honour. Despite Lewandowski being one of the most prolific goal scores of, frankly, the past decade, it would be disrespectful to suggest Messi did not deserve the recognition he was awarded. But is this criticism deserved? Should Lewandowski have his name etched on the Ballon d’Or recipient list? Or is this just overcompensation for the Ballon d’Or that he deserved more in 2020?
As a preface, these comparisons will not include the somewhat controversial third place Jorginho, because despite winning the UEFA Champions League and the EURO Cup, not only would his statistical presence be too difficult to compare, his role as a holding midfielder simply is not outstanding enough to be considered for such award. Other players in a similar role have been far superior and have never received Ballon d’Or nominations.
2021 was an unusual year of major international tournaments, due to the COVID-19 cancellation of the regular 2020 events. This included both a 2021 EURO Cup and the aforementioned 2021 Copa America, perfect for comparing the two potential Ballon d’Or winners. Now as previously mentioned, Messi’s tear through the competition gave Argentina the ability to hoist the trophy, contributing 4 goals and 5 assists in a mere 7 games. But let’s take this one step further. How good was he, really? He had an expected goals (xG) of 2.8 and an expected assists (xA) of 2.9 — both supporting the notion that Messi does far more than what is available to him. As a playmaker, he provided 3.01 key passes, 4.25 passes into the final third, and 5.75 progressive passes per 90 minutes. As well, he provided 6.27 shot creating actions and 1.09 goal creating actions per 90. He also excelled in possession, racking up over 5 successful dribbles and almost 10 progressive carries per 90.
On the flip side, Lewandowski’s EURO numbers pale in comparison. In 3 games RL9 provided 3 goals for his team on 1.7 xG, and 0 assists on 0.3 xG. He made 1 key pass, 1.33 passes into the final third, and 1.33 progressive passes per game, with only 1.67 shot creating actions and a whopping 0 goal creating actions per 90 minutes. To save time and avoid an obvious fact, Messi’s numbers in possession blow Lewandowski’s out of the water. It’s safe to say Messi provided more for his national team en route to an international trophy.
International competitions are vital for Ballon d’Or rankings, and are a large factor as to how Jorginho was a contender for the award. In 2008, after winning the EUROS, 4 Spaniards were in the top 7 Ballon d’Or rankings. In 2010, 5 cracked the top 10, and in 2012, 3 were in the top 6. Every country tunes in to watch the international tournaments, so despite only consisting of a few games, these are extremely important for proving the case for best in the world. To account for the fact that yes, these only make up a small fraction of the games the two played, let’s look at some important stats from their 2021 campaigns, up to the beginning of the 2021-2022 season:
Lewandowski
Messi
Goals
32
32
Assists
3
11
Expected Goals
26.3
17.5
Expected Assists
3
8.2
Shot Creating Actions
56
171
Goal Creating Actions
11
30
Progressive Passes
34
241
Progressive Carries
80
396
Across goals and assists, Messi’s 2021 numbers equal and exceed Lewandowski’s tallies. Messi has fewer expected goals, showing he can make mountains out of mere molehills, and a positive difference between his assists and expected assists. His playmaking, however, is where he proves that he is the greatest of all time for a reason.
Against the man who many believe deserved to win the Ballon d’Or, Messi exceeded shot creating and goal creating actions by 115 and 19, respectively. On top of that, Messi provided 207 more progressive passes and completed 316 more progressive carries than Lewandowski, numbers which absolutely blow any other player’s stats out of the water. What is most astounding is that Messi, who played in a deeper number 10 role for Barcelona, achieved similar goal-scoring numbers to a de facto number 9 for Bayern Munich, a squad filled with far better talent.
Across all competitions in 2021, Lionel Messi proved why he not only deserved the 2021 Ballon d’Or, but why he is simply the greatest the sport has ever seen. Robert Lewandowski should be proud his name is even among Messi’s, and to say that Messi ‘robbed’ Lewandowski is simply ignoring what was one of the biggest carry jobs in recent memory. Messi proved time and time again that he does more with less, and despite not reaching his usual heights of scoring 92 goals in a year, or winning six trophies, he more than deserved the 2021 Ballon d’Or.
As a note, all stats were collected using Lionel Messi’s and Robert Lewandowski’s FBref.com: Football Statistics and History and FotMob - The Pulse of Football pages, and were compiled by myself. Shot creating actions are described as “the two offensive actions directly leading to a shot, such as passes, dribbles and drawing fouls”, and goal creating actions are described as “the two offensive actions directly leading to a goal, such as passes, dribbles and drawing fouls.” Progressive passes are “completed passes that move the ball towards the opponent's goal at least 10 yards from its furthest point in the last six passes, or any completed pass into the penalty area”, and progressive carries or dribbles are “Carries that move the ball towards the opponent's goal at least 5 yards, or any carry into the penalty area.”
References
Gallager, S. (30 Nov., 2021). Ballon d’Or winners and the top 10 players from 2000 to 2021 as Lionel Messi beats Robert Lewandowski, Jorginho and Cristiano Ronaldo to top award. talkSport. https://talksport.com/football/295081/ballon-dor-winners-top-10-players-lionel-messi-cristiano-ronaldo-robert-lewandowski-luka-modric-neymar/.
(5 Dec., 2021). Lionel Messi 2020-2021 match logs. FBRef. https://fbref.com/en/players/d70ce98e/matchlogs/2020-2021/summary/Lionel-Messi-Match-Logs.
(5 Dec., 2021). Robert Lewandowski 2020-2021 match logs. FBRef. https://fbref.com/en/players/8d78e732/matchlogs/2020-2021/summary/Robert-Lewandowski-Match-Logs.
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