Written By: Cameron Schoffro
Edited By: Jovan Popovic
When Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner exploded for points on 4 of Toronto’s goals in the 5-3 victory over the Montreal Canadiens on Saturday night, their sheer dominance demanded the question: are Toronto fans witnessing the best duo in the NHL? Sure, the obvious choice would be McDavid and Draisaitl of the Edmonton Oilers, and although they are outstanding players individually, there is a convincing case for the elite Maple Leafs. All four players score plenty of goals and assists, but the underlying stats may provide a more telling answer.
First one must ask a simple question, can the best duo play on separate lines? McDavid and Draisaitl centre their own lines and only spend time together on the powerplay. Admittedly, they're fantastic with the extra man, but they get more opportunities than Toronto. Should the Maple Leafs, with the highest PP% in the NHL, be punished for their dumbfounding inability to draw penalties? Matthews and Marner play nearly every shift together, which has allowed them to develop spectacular chemistry. Due to their difference in style of play, Marner's playmaking complements the best goal-scorer in the league perfectly; he seems to be able to place his passes exactly in Matthews' wheelhouse. Leon and Connor both love the spotlight and excel individually rather than in a tandem. Moreover, the best duo's play should guide their team to wins, and the Toronto Maple Leafs are currently the best team in the league, while Edmonton is fighting for a playoff spot in the objectively weak North division.
Expected goals is an advanced metric that attempts to measure a player's isolated impact based on the quality and location of shot attempts both for and against while they're on the ice at even-strength. It's a reliable way to determine a player's value on either side of the puck by recognizing their ability to create and stop scoring chances.
The results are clear, not only is the Toronto duo significantly more responsible in their own end, but they've been more dangerous on offence too. Draisaitl's +/- is most striking, as he's such a defensive liability that it outweighs his offensive talent.
Sheldon Keefe paired Toronto's franchise cornerstones in the high-flying 8-6 victory over the Carolina Hurricanes in December 2019, when the Leafs desperately needed an offensive spark, and he hasn't looked back. Mike Babcock rejected the idea of two puck-dominant players on the same line, even though they publicly stated they would love to play together. They identified the chemistry before their coach did, when Matthews said, "when we've been together, it just kind of clicks right away" (TSN). Coach Keefe didn't overcomplicate his lineup; he decided Toronto's best centre and winger ought to play alongside one another.
Joe Thornton looks revitalized playing with Matthews and Marner. As he has aged, his playmaking has remained steady, and he is a fantastic facilitator of the puck with the two stars. Thornton has amassed a point per game in his nine games played this year, a pace he's failed to reach for five seasons. When he went down with fractured ribs, Zach Hyman filled in and excelled on Toronto's top line. No matter who's slotted on their left-wing, they receive an immediate boost in production.
Auston Matthews has taken his game to the next level this year, as he's on pace for 56 goals in 55 games played. He's accomplished unprecedented dominance, on track for the most impressive season by a Maple Leaf throughout their entire storied history. To put his goal-scoring in perspective, he has as many even-strength goals as McDavid and Draisaitl combined with 11. Matthews will also be a contender for the Selke this year as a result of his elite defensive ability. The NHL Network posted a stunning graphic recently, which is pictured below:
Any claim of him being a one-dimensional player is sorely mistaken; he's using his 6'3", 211-pound frame to his benefit by simply outmuscling opposing defenders. His training with McDavid in the offseason has served him well, as his newfound speed has transformed him into a more well-rounded player.
Marner is a top-notch playmaker and undoubtedly one of the best passers in the NHL; however, he has always lacked the finishing ability to take him to the next level. Year after year, reports would come out that he worked on his shot in the offseason and intended to become a threat to score. Well, it has finally paid off. He is scoring on shots he wouldn't have even attempted in previous years, using his shifty footwork and stickhandling to provide different looks and open up the net. Now that goalies must respect his shot, it has created opportunities for his passes that didn't previously exist. Marner also contributes significantly to team defence, as he’s become a dependable penalty killer for the Leafs.
Hockey is a game filled with nuance that extends past the scoresheet or highlight reel, McDavid may fill your Instagram feed with a ridiculous goal once a week, but a player's impact is measured every single shift. Toronto has a pair that play the right way; they are world-class offensive players without sacrificing defensive responsibilities, unlike their Edmonton counterparts.
References:
- Hockey Reference. (n.d.). NHL stats, History, scores, & Records. Retrieved February 22, 2021, from https://www.hockey-reference.com/
- Richard, N. (2021, February 21). Auston Matthews has 18 goals and 11 assists in 18 games And also: Pic.twitter.com/CAxnh9R1Lw. Retrieved February 22, 2021, from https://twitter.com/_nickrichard/status/1363325405655146496?s=10
- TSN. (2019, October 20). Matthews, Marner WILL 'PROBABLY' see Shifts together but Mike BABCOCK not sold on combination. Retrieved February 22, 2021, from https://www.tsn.ca/matthews-marner-will-probably-see-shifts-together-but-mike-babcock-not-sold-on-combination-1.1384194
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