Definitions:
Pace of play is defined as team possessions per 48 minutes.
League average 3PA is defined as the average number of three-pointers each NBA team took during a season.
Given the exponential rise in 3 pointers taken in today’s NBA and the seemingly endless increase in pace of play, one begins to wonder about its effects – and whether or not fans will continue to be entertained by this style of play.
A Brief History of Long Shots and Calculated Thoughts
There are a number of events that have led the NBA towards the astronomical display of sharpshooting superstars and trigger-happy offence systems that we see today. The first event that could have triggered this shooting onslaught came prior to the 2001-02 NBA season when we saw a number of new defensive rules being implemented along with current rules being altered. One of these rules is the three-second rule, one which the NBA adopted to eliminate defensive players from standing in the lane for more than three seconds if they were not guarding an offensive player. Along with this new defensive rule aimed at making defenses more active, the time offensive teams had to advance the ball past half court was reduced from ten seconds to eight seconds.
These minor changes and new rules had a modest effect on pace of play, actually decreasing possessions per 48 minutes from 91.3 in the 2000-01 season to 90.7 in 2001-02. However, teams adjusted their offensive strategies to compensate for the new rule changes resulting in a 7% increase in league average 3PA per game from 13.7 in 2000-01 to 14.7 in the 2001-02 season; leading to 2,400 more three-pointers being taken across the league. Capitalizing on this rule change, the Boston Celtics in particular seemed to have altered their offensive play style, further increasing their league-leading 3PA per game from 19.9 in 2000-01 to 23.7 in 2001-02 (well over 300 more 3PA than their previous season). This shift in offensive focus proved to be successful for the Celtics as they improved upon their 36-46 record in 2000-01, going 49-33 in 2001-02 and making a trip to the Eastern Conference Finals.
Possibly, the most influential factor in the rising pace of play and increased prevalence of 3PA per game was the NBA’s crackdown on hand-checking (which was first put forth as a new rule prior to the 2004-05 season) and their commitment to enforcing these defense-limiting rules to open up the game - the impact of this rule can be seen in the graph with a clear rise in 3PA subsequent to the change. This freedom in off-ball movement for offensive players leads to a quicker pace of play and more open three-point looks for players, offering an explanation to the rise in 3PA that we have seen in the past number of years.
In analyzing the increase in league average 3PA per game before and after the 2004-05 NBA rule changes, it is clear that there has been a substantial influence on players to step back behind the three-point line – or rather, a push in what the NBA considered “the right direction” for the league. In the four years from the 1999-00 season to the 2003-04 season, league average 3PA per game increased by about 8% and pace of play decreased by about 3%.
Now, in the four years following the rule change – from the 2004-05 season through the 2008-09 season – league average 3PA per game increased by about 13% and pace of play increased by about 1%. The impact of the NBA’s crackdown on hand-checking is clearly evident given the substantial increase in 3PA per game following the rule change. There has been considerable emphasis placed on making the game as interesting as possible; a deliberate push towards more shots, more running, more highlight plays and, for the NBA, more revenue.
The Steph Curry Effect and What’s Next
In the years leading up to Steph Curry’s NBA 3PM (and 3PA) record breaking 2015-16 season, pace of play had been fluctuating year-over-year, and 3PA per game had been increasing at a rather slow rate of less than 2% per year. Many NBA players and coaches were still undecided on their opinions of quick possessions and the extent to which they could elevate performance. Team possessions per 48 minutes dropped as low as 90.5 in the 2005-06 season from a more fast paced 93.1 possessions per. 48 during the 1999-00 season. The clear rise in NBA pace of play and 3PA truly began in the 2012-13 NBA season - as shown in the upwards trends in the charts below. In the years following (and including) the 2012-13 NBA season, pace of play grew at an average rate of about 2% per year and league 3PA grew at an average rate of over 6% per year. Now, in the years following (and including) the 2015-16 season, pace of play had already risen to a new high of 95.8 possessions per. 48 minutes. This figure continued to rise an additional 6% from this level to 101.6 possessions per. 48 minutes (through November 1st) in the 2018-19 season.
Further, the league average 3PA per game rose 36% from 20.0 in 2013 to 31.4 in 2018 (through November 1st) as teams continue to shift their offensive focus’ noticing the changing dynamic of the game. The emergence of the newest NBA superstar had the league scrambling to catch up and resulted in a “if you can’t beat them, join them” approach to dealing with the changes – shoot more threes.
Before fans across the world wore yellow jerseys with the number 30 across their back, Ray Allen was testing the limits of defenses by spreading the floor and using the new NBA anti-hand-checking rules to his advantage. Posting his career high 3PM of 269 in the 2005-06 season, this record would not be beaten until Curry’s breakout year in the 2012-13 season with 272 3PM and he would go on to beat his own record twice. Setting the stage for something much bigger than an NBA record, Allen showed young basketball players what could be done behind the three-point arc and was one of the first NBA superstars to demonstrate the impact three-pointers could have on the game.
While the eye-catching title of this article is based on quantitative evidence and analysis, the emergence of a “shoot first, drive second” offence cannot be credited to Curry alone. Today’s NBA showcases a number of exceptional three-point shooters who continue to contribute to the rising pace of play. In particular, James Harden and Curry’s right-hand man, Klay Thompson, are leading the league in a direction that has captivated fans and filled the NBA’s pockets. These three players combined to shoot 41.7% from behind the arc, making 914 threes on 2,193 3PA in the 2015-16 season. If just these three players were a team, they would average 26.74 3PA per game; more than the Milwaukee Bucks who had the lowest 3PA in the NBA during the 2015-16 season attempting only 15.6 threes per game. Steph Curry, James Harden, and Klay Thompson averaged 42% more 3PA per game than the Bucks during that season.
Considering this impressive statistic, I do not believe that three players can continue averaging nearly twice as many 3PA as an entire NBA team – while this system may work for certain teams with the right players in the right places, it is not a sustainable level of offence for the entire NBA.
Given the increasing interest from fans to see faster paced games and more action, and what seems to be a never-ending flow of sharpshooting talent into the NBA, I do not see three-pointers exiting the spotlight as one of the most sought-after plays to watch. Coming with no surprise that as Curry, Harden, and Thompson continue to age and pass their respective peaks in the NBA, the league will further their search for new players that can bring this same downpour of shots behind the arc and keep up with the ever-increasing pace of play to retain interest and entertain their audience of fans with dwindling attention spans.
What’s (Really) Next?
While I have provided statistics and analysis to support my opinion that we have surpassed a sustainable level of threes attempted per game, the global reach and fans consistent interest in seeing threes in the NBA today indicate that we will not be seeing a slowdown in behind-the-arc play any time soon.
The NBA is an organization that really values its fans (and money), and as a business unit that is always striving to attract a larger audience (and more money), league decision makers are influenced to continue to push the sport further towards an aspect of the game that brings their fans entertainment (and brings the league money). At the end of the day, the NBA’s main focus is to maximize profits, and by no coincidence, the fans focus is continually drawn to impressive displays of sharpshooting. The decision makers behind the NBA are well aware that three-point shooting talent is one of their key assets in attracting new fans and retaining interest in a continually evolving organization based around a sport that is only 20 years older than Canada as a country.
Do the fans love it? Yes. Is it sustainable? No.
But is it a smart business strategy? Absolutely.
stats and information taken from nba.com, basketball-reference.com, espn.com
By: Tyler Corso and Khashayar Akbari
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