Written By: Jovan Popovic
Edited By: Cameron Schoffro
It’s obvious that the Blue Jays have become one of the strongest teams in the MLB, but even after a strong start to free agency, many still consider the team to have several holes. Pitching has been one of the most discussed issues, even after the addition of Kevin Gausman. Both the bullpen, and the rotation remain areas of focus for the Jays, but what if upgrades weren’t necessary? Believe it or not, the Jays might have the pieces they need already rostered.
Ross Stripling
A major concern for many Jays fans was the rotation. Although the team signed Giants ace Kevin Gausman, they lost the reigning Cy Young winner Robbie Ray and 14 game-winner, Steven Matz, to the Mariners and Cardinals. Fortunately, the team already has a fifth starter that can easily make up the lost ground.
Those who take a look at Stripling’s 2021 stat line have a valid reason for concern: his 4.80 ERA, 1.273 WHIP, and 5.21 FIP, all of which are not good numbers. Fortunately, his stats are very misleading.
To properly evaluate his 2021 season, it’s best to split it up into three segments; the “beginning of the year” phase, the “post adjustment” phase, and the “post injury” phase.
Stripling started the year terrible - there’s no way to put it nicely. In his first six starts, he held an ERA of 7.20. Following this stretch he would lose his starting job, but not for long. Working with Pete Walker, Stripling made a mechanical adjustment. From this point on, he would be as dependable as it gets. In the next 14 games, he would maintain an ERA of only 3.29. Take out one outlier game against the Red Sox on July 19 and that number drops to an incredible 2.51.
In early August he would land on the injured list, and wouldn’t return until late September in a bullpen role due to the acquisition of Jose Berrios. He clearly never felt comfortable there, once again leading to an inflated season stat line.
The most critical stretch to look at was undoubtedly the middle “post adjustment” phase. He was absolutely dominant, and although a 2.51 ERA is an unrealistic goal for 2022, he can’t be overlooked for the fifth spot in the rotation. He can absolutely hold down the fort, and unless it comes at a great price, there is no significant need for an upgrade here. The rotation is fine as is.
Hyun-Jin Ryu
It would’ve come as a real shock to find Ryu on this list one year ago, as he was coming off a strong 2020 that saw him place third in CY Young voting. Unfortunately, he just couldn’t find the same success in 2021, finishing the year with a 4.37 ERA. He has quickly become a write-off for countless Jays supporters heading into 2022, undeservingly so.
Beginning the season Ryu looked like his typical self. Through his first 10 games, he held an ERA of 2.62, and this was against some of the strongest offensive teams in the league (Yankees, Braves, Red Sox). In June things quickly changed for Ryu, and his season would change in a hurry. Some people believed it was the loss of his personal catcher Danny Jansen, who landed on the IL for a significant period of time, but he would occasionally have some incredibly strong starts with Reese McGuire, leading some to believe that this wasn’t the issue either. Perhaps it wasn’t.
A hardly mentioned possibility at play was an injury for Ryu. In September, like many of his teammates over the course of the season, Ryu would find himself on the injured list with a neck strain. Although there is no definitive evidence, the possibility exists that this was an injury he was attempting to work through all season. The issue for Ryu in his poor stretch was control. Sometimes he had it, sometimes he didn’t, it would come and go like the wind - this was with all catchers he worked with. In the case of the injury, one could believe that his control was correlated with his injury, and in turn, the natural resistance that came with it. The worse the injury on a given day, the less control he would have.
As a former pitcher, I can personally attest to the severe impact that an injury can have to control specifically. You start unintentionally changing your mechanics to avoid pain, and it throws off your whole delivery. That said, a healthy Ryu in 2022 could make all the difference in the world. The Blue Jays still might have a top of the rotation arm in him.
Anthony Kay
In his three years of major league experience, Anthony Kay holds a 5.50 ERA through 68.2 innings. In AAA Buffalo during the 2021 season, he had an even worse 8.89 ERA in 11 games, five of which were starts. So why on earth is he on this list?
Simply put, Anthony Kay is a reliever and a pretty good one. Unfortunately, the Blue Jays seem insistent on making him a starter, and it is taking a huge toll on him as a team depth option.
In 2020 Kay functioned solely as a reliever. He appeared in 13 games. Unfortunately in his 12th game, he fell apart against the Mets. Just had a bad game - it happens. He finished the year with a 5.14 ERA. Prior to that game, however, Kay held a 2.45 ERA. He made several multi-inning appearances and was raking up strikeouts. His walks were a little bit of an issue - he doesn’t have great command - but for a reliever, that is perfectly acceptable. It’s with starters that this becomes an issue.
Through the 2021 season, Kay flip-flopped all year between the bullpen and the rotation, both in the majors, and AAA. This is a difficult role to deal with for any pitcher, as the two have very different preparation and training processes, never mind someone who is only cut out for one of those roles.
Should Kay be moved to the bullpen, he has a chance to excel. His shaky command can be easily overlooked, and it would give his “stuff” a chance to shine. Should the team make this adjustment, he could become a strong piece for a bullpen facing a lot of uncertainty.
Julian Merryweather
There are two different ways that Jays fans remember Merryweather. He’s either the guy who was borderline unusable in September, or he’s the shutdown closer that the team needed all year to compliment Romano. The difference is remarkable.
September/October was a miserable time for Merryweather. He appeared in nine games and totalled only 8.2 innings pitched with an ERA of 7.27. His pitches wouldn’t break, his velocity was nothing special, and he was getting hit around like crazy. Fans who saw him pitch in April had no idea what they were watching.
April was unbelievable for Merryweather. Many fans were just seeing him play for the first time. His fastball was sitting 99-103, while his curve was in the low 80s. It was one of the biggest velocity differences in recent history. He looked unhittable and struck out seven across 4.1 innings. Then he got hurt. He would land on the 60 day IL, and wouldn’t see the field for nearly five months.
After so much time off, one could only expect him to be rusty. So, the team sent him on a minor league rehab assignment… For less than one week. That made no sense. Five months off, and all he needs is a few days to be major league ready? Upon his return, it was clear that he wasn’t given enough time. In his first couple appearances, his fastball was sitting in the low 90s, commonly hitting 91-94. By the end of the month, he was trending up and sat around 95-97, but still, that was far off from the constant 100s he was putting up to start the year.
All Merryweather needed to get back to form was some time to shake off the rust. With an offseason (and maybe more) to prepare, a healthy Merryweather could be a huge piece for a bullpen in need of some dependable arms. If he’s hitting 100 again come spring, the league should be on notice.
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