With the William Nylander contract signing debacle fresh in our minds, it brings up the conversation of next year’s pool of restricted free agents, and what challenges that may bring upon the teams involved. There are 16 notable eligible RFA forwards next season and in this article, I am going to take a look at all of them. Usually when people try to predict salaries they use the salaries of other comparable players. Comparables can definitely be helpful, but I decided to do it a little bit differently. I chose to gather data from 75 NHL forwards, recording the salaries they received as RFA’s, the amount of points they scored and their relative corsi for % a year before they signed their contract. With this, I plan to predict what the pool of RFA forwards next year will receive based on their projected stats for this season.
The Data
Before I get into the players, I will first take a look at the data I have compiled and what it all means. As stated before, I recorded the data of 75 NHL forwards to create multiple regression models. The first model I created compares the amount of points a player tallied with the salary they received just one year later. For the salary I had to adjust for the fact that the salary cap increases every year, which is why i used the % of the salary cap each contract hits.
The graph shown above exhibits a strong positive correlation between points and salary with a R squared of 0.749, meaning that about 75% of the variability of the data is explained by the model. This is not too surprising as for most forwards, their main goal is to produce points. The variability in the graph could have arisen for a multitude of reasons. One of the main reasons for contract variability can be chalked up to differing playstyles. A great example of this is Paul Stastny, who’s RFA contract took up a whopping 12.29% of the salary cap with only 65 points. For reference, Nicklas Backstrom’s contract took up 11.83% of the cap and he scored 101 points the year before he signed it. Obviously Backstrom and Stastny are very different players, and while Stastny was not an elite point producer, he was obviously a good enough player to make the money that he did.
The second model I created compares relative corsi for percentage with cap hit percentage. For those who may not already know, corsi is a measure of shot differential that is used to estimate which teams are providing more offensive pressure while also suppressing the opposing team’s shots. Relative corsi percentage is the corsi ratio of an individual player compared with the rest of their team and is used to identify which players are actually driving the play. With the background of corsi covered, we can now take a look at the graph above. The data in this model is noticeably more spread out than the previous one. With an R squared of 0.37, this model does not account for a huge portion of the variability and most of it results from external sources. This is not very surprising as corsi is not a mainstream statistic to look at and has only quite recently gotten recognition from NHL general managers. For many of the players I recorded, their contracts were signed ten years ago, when corsi was very uncommon to use for evaluating players. Despite this, the graph is still quite useful in predicting salary ranges for potential RFAs. Just because the GMs weren’t explicitly looking at the Corsi numbers does not mean that salaries and corsi hold no correlation. Corsi is still a good measure of how strong a player is at driving offensive play, and if it is noticeable, their salary will reflect that.
Using regression analysis I will get two salaries using each of the models and create a salary range estimate. Keep in mind that these models are not totally accurate and every contract negotiation is different. With that covered, let’s get into the players.
Mitch Marner
I was planning on starting with Auston Matthews but he just recently signed a 5 year, 58 million dollar deal, so instead, I’ll begin with Mitch Marner. With the season he has had so far, it is fair to say that he will be receiving a very respectable salary, though definitely less than what Matthews received. With his 99 projected points, our model estimates a cap hit of $10.7 million. This is definitely on the high side and it is questionable if his production will hold up to the end of the season. With that being said, Marner reaching 99 points is not totally out of the realm of possibility, however, i still doubt the Leafs would be able to pay that much. The Corsi model on the other hand predicts Marner to make just 6.3 million. Obviously this prediction is on the low end of what Marner would accept, and I believe that the Marner contract will be somewhere toward the high-end due to his name and the gaudiness of generating 99 points. Therefore, he trends closer to the $10 million range. With Marner playing the way he is right now, he has a good chance to sign a very lucrative contract, and with the Leafs in contention, they would be fools not to lock him up.
Kasperi Kapanen
The second Maple Leaf on this list is Kasperi Kapanen. The speedy winger has had quite the breakout season so far, exceeding almost everyone’s expectations while playing alongside Matthews. He is projected to score 48 points this season which based on our model would give him a cap hit of around 5 million. I do think that is much too high for the Leafs to afford and unless Kapanen gets offer sheeted, I wouldn’t imagine his salary reaching the 5 million level. Based on his Corsi, our model predicts a cap hit of 4.25 million, which is closer to what I think Kapanen will receive but still higher than the Leafs are willing to pay. Based on our models I do believe Kapanen is worth at least 3.5 million, but I don’t think the Leafs will be willing or able to afford that. If Kapanen wants to be able to play on this potential cup contender, he will most likely have to take a decent pay cut. We will see where Kapanen’s priorities lie in the coming months when he signs his first big contract.
Mikko Rantanen
The next player we’ll be taking a look at is the Colorado Avalanche winger, Mikko Rantanen. Rantanen has had a blockbuster year and is currently top 5 in the league in both points and assists. With how well he has been playing, there is no doubt he will be the highest paid player on the avalanche if they decide to sign him, which they most likely will. The points model predicts him to sign a whopping 12.6 million dollar contract, which would make him the highest paid player in the league, with 100,000 more AAV than Connor McDavid. Although Rantanen has been playing exceptionally, he is still quite far from the player that Connor McDavid is, and I would even be surprised if he received a $10 million cap hit. For our corsi model, he is predicted to receive a more realistic 8.3 million dollar contract. Rantanen is a very special player and is a very valuable piece for the Colorado Avalanche to hold on to. If I had to make a guess, I wouldn’t bet on Rantanen signing a contract for anything less than an 8 million dollar cap hit.
Brayden Point
Brayden Point is another player that has had a truly exceptional season. He is the leading goal scorer for the Tampa Bay Lightning and is second in points, behind only Nikita Kucherov. Our points model predicts with his 104 projected points, Brayden will receive an 11.2 million dollar contract. This would be a huge contract for Point, but based on his previous two seasons, a contract this large seems unlikely. Our Corsi model on the other hand predicts a 7 million dollar contract. The Lightning are in the midst of a salary cap crunch, and paying Point similar to what they’re paying Steven Stamkos and Kucherov is just not possible. Depending on what Point commands, the Lightning may have to move around some of their pieces to make room for the salary cap, but for them, i’m sure it will be well worth it to hold on to such a special player.
Matthew Tkachuk
Matthew Tkachuk is the next player were going to take a look at. He already has more points this far into the season than he did in either of his previous two seasons. The points model predicts Tkachuk to receive a contract of 9.5 million dollars while the Corsi model predicts 8.2 million. These numbers seem quite high for a player like Tkachuk and I would assume his inflated numbers this season will help him make some extra money, but i would be surprised if he received any more than 8 million. I’m sure it is of utmost priority for Calgary Flames to lock up Matthew Tkachuk and if it takes him being the highest player on their roster, that should be no issue for them.
Sebastian Aho
Another potential RFA for next season is Carolina Hurricanes’ centreman Sebastian Aho. With 62 points in just 54 games, Aho is poised to blow his previous season high point total of 65 out of the water. His success this season puts his predicted salary based on points at around 10 million dollars. This would make him by far the highest paid player on the Hurricanes, and while he may be their most valuable asset, I doubt they’d be willing to shell out that much. The Corsi model predicts a still respectable, 6.5 million for Aho, which i’m sure the Canes would be happy to sign him for. The Carolina Hurricanes are in a rebuilding stage and Aho is imperative for them to become a contender any time soon. If his season continues the way it does, they will most likely have to provide him with at least an 8 million dollar cap hit, which given the circumstances should be well worth it.
Patrik Laine
Patrik Laine has not had a very strong season at all so far. He is obviously one of the most elite goal scorers in the league, but the slump he experienced could prove to be a hindrance to him receiving the contract he may think he deserves. With only 54 projected points, 16 less than last year, the points model predicts Laine to receive just a 6 million dollar cap hit. Conversely, the Corsi model predicts Laine will receive 7.5 million, which a slightly closer to what I think he deserves. Laine has had a very off year, but he still has the second most goals on the Winnipeg Jets. Since our models are only accounting for this year, I don’t think they are recognizing how good of a player Patrik Laine really is. Laine is a truly exceptional player, I wouldn’t expect him to receive any less than 8 million AAV when he signs his contract, and depending on how he negotiates, could even receive up to 9 and a half or 10 million.
Timo Meier
The next player I will be talking about is, San Jose Sharks’ right winger Timo Meier. Meier has been a very solid player for the Sharks this season with 47 points in his 51 games played. The points model predicts an 8.1 million dollar contract for Meier which would be in my opinion a huge overpay. The Corsi model is a bit more realistic estimating 5.9 million. Timo Meier is definitely a very talented young forward, but his benefit to the team would definitely not warrant a contract any higher than 7 million, and I still think that may be a bit high. He is having a very solid year, but his previous two years were nothing special. A bridge deal could be a possibility for Meier to prove his worth and come up with a contract that both parties would be satisfied with.
Brock Boeser
Brock Boeser is another player that is a potential restricted free agent next year. After suffering a groin injury early in November and missing 11 games, Boeser has come back better than ever. Based on his projected points model he is predicted to receive an 7.8 million dollar contract. And with his very strong Corsi numbers, Boeser’s cap hit is estimated at 8.7 million. Brock Boeser is one of the Vancouver Canucks’ most talented forwards, and with their rebuild in full effect, their top priority should be to lock up their good young players. A player like Boeser is definitely worth upwards of 7 million dollars, and how much more will be decided by the Canucks. Locking up Boeser is very important, but they must also keep in mind their other upcoming RFA signings, like Pettersson and Virtanen.
Kyle Connor
The second Winnipeg Jets player we are going to talk about is Kyle Connor. This speedy winger has had a very strong year and is poised to score a career high 65 points. The points model has him predicted to receive a contract with a cap hit of 7 million dollars which is similar to his Corsi model of 6.9 million. This would be a very generous contract for Connor and I doubt the Jets would be willing to accept it. With the added pressure of signing Laine for next season, I could not imagine Connor receiving any more than 6 and a half million.
William Karlsson
The next player I’m going to take a look at is William Karlsson. After signing a two year 2 million dollar bridge deal, Karlsson is a pending RFA, expecting a much larger contract. His exceptional 78 point season is now a distant memory, as he is only projected to to score 49 points this year. Our model predicts a 5.2 million dollar contract based on points and a 4.9 million dollar contract based on Corsi. This seems accurate in predicting the contract Karlsson will receive. Last season could be used as a bargaining piece and I’m sure the Golden Knights will do whatever they can to lock him down, but I would be very surprised if Karlsson received anything upwards of six million.
Jakub Vrana
The next RFA I’m going to cover is the Washington Capitals’ winger, Jakub Vrana. Vrana has grown as a player over the past few years and is projected to score a very respectable 48 points this season. With that production our model predicts Vrana to sign a 5.1 million dollar contract. A very large contract for the young player, similar to the 5.7 million dollar cap hit the corsi model predicted. Vrana is a solid second line player who I am sure the Capitals would like to hold on to.
Kevin Fiala
Kevin Fiala is another player that is pending RFA status for next season. Playing left wing for the Nashville Predators, Fiala has been a very solid player, scoring 48 points last season and is on pace for 43 this year. Our points model predicts Fiala to receive a respectable 4.2 million dollar contract, which would be a very good paycheck for the third liner. Likewise, the Corsi model predicts a 4.6 million dollar contract for Fiala. These estimates are very similar to what I think Fiala will receive. He is a very good offensive player for the Predators and I think if they can get Fiala for 4 million, they’ll take it in a heartbeat.
Travis Konecny
The next player I’m going to take a look at is Travis Konecny of the Philadelphia Flyers. Konecny’s previous season was very solid, scoring 47 points in his 81 games played. This year he is again playing quite well and he is poised to score one more point than last year by the end of the season. The points model predicts Konecny to receive a contract with a cap hit of 5.1 million dollars, while the corsi model forecasts a 6.5 million dollar contract. These estimates are quite high for the caliber of player that Konecny is hence, I would predict Konecny receiving closer to the 4 million range. Philadelphia is having a very tough year so far, and if they want to have any success in the future, it should be their utmost priority on holding on to good young players.
Anthony Beauvillier
Anthony Beauvillier is another player who is set sign a contract as an RFA for next season. Beauvillier currently plays left wing for the New York Islanders and is on pace to score 30 points this season. Our model predicts that with those points totals he would receive a 3.1 million dollar contract. On the other hand the corsi model predicts him to receive a whopping 5.9 million dollar contract. This contract is much too high for a depth player like Beauvillier, and I would predict that he would receive closer to what the points model predicts.
Nick Schmaltz
Nick Schmaltz is the next player whose contract I’m going to try to predict. After getting traded from the Chicago Blackhawks to the Arizona Coyotes, he has had no trouble adjusting, with 14 points in his 17 games played for his new organization. Our points model is quite inflated with his projected 52 points, predicting Schmaltz to a receive 5.6 million dollar contract. He has only played 40 games this season, but his projected points total is similar to last years point total of 52. The corsi model predicts a quite inflated 6.2 million dollar contract for the winger. This is definitely much greater than Schmaltz is worth and I doubt the Coyotes would pay him any more than 5 million.
Conclusion
The 2019-2020 season is going to be a blockbuster year for RFA signings, with many exceptional players having the chance to make exorbitant amounts of money. The points model was quite reasonable with the predictions it produced, which was no surprise to me. For many previous RFA signings, points are a large factor that go into how much leverage the player has to negotiate. I generally agreed with the predictions aside from some estimates, that were inflated because of the surprising increase in goals scored this season. So far this year, the total goals for per game in the NHL is at a record high 3.03. Goals per game has not reached 3 since 2005. Since players are scoring at such a high rate this year, the salary negotiations are going to account for this trend, which the model did not take into account. The corsi model was less accurate which i assumed it would be. Since corsi is not as widely used as points are in contract negotiations, it is obvious that it would be less accurate in predicting what players actually sign for. Hopefully reading about this process was somewhat insightful and gives a greater understanding about everything that is taken into account in these very important contract negotiations. When these players do end up signing their contracts, it will be intriguing to see how accurate the models were.
Stats obtained from NHL.com, Naturalstattrick.com
By: Justin Tohana and Khashayar Akbari
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