Written By: Ryan Humphrey
Edited By: Cameron Schoffro
The Columbus Blue Jackets and Winnipeg Jets sure know how to shake things up early in the season! Just under a month ago, the NHL saw the swap of two dissatisfied all-star level forwards, sending Pierre- Luc Dubois and a 2022 third-round pick to Winnipeg in exchange for Patrik Laine and centre Jack Roslovic. After being drafted in 2016 2nd and 3rd overall, there has been a unique progression to each individual's career. Laine came out hot, making the team and putting up 36 goals and 64 points in his rookie campaign. Unlike Laine, Dubois had to wait till his second year after being drafted to crack the lineup but had an excellent rookie year putting up a respectable 20 goals and 48 points. Fast forward to the 2020-2021 NHL season, and both players have panned out to be exceptional players on the front end. Before the trade happened, rumours stated that both players were seemingly disgruntled by their team situations and were looking for new scenery to continue their careers. With both players having displayed somewhat consistent talent and untapped growth potential, this trade filled both of the team's needs in this blockbuster deal.
Pierre-Luc Dubois to Winnipeg
At just 22 years old, Dubois possesses elite talent with massive upside down the middle of the ice. With over 241 career games played, he has put up 159 points, which is good for 6th in the 2016 draft class. Although lacking on even-strength defence and goals against percentiles, Dubois still provides a dominant top-six forward role for the Jets heavily making up for the defensive struggles of Laine. Bringing an even-strength offence in the 90th percentile, Dubois also has great skill in creating controlled entry and exit opportunities vastly improving the second line’s possession ability on both sides of the ice. In trading Laine, the Jets now have the opportunity to keep Paul Stastny on the third line, improving their depth and allowing Stastny to thrive in a more appropriate role within the forward core. Evidently, by being able to trade an elite scoring winger like Laine, the Jets possess an incredible amount of talent up the wing and with Dubois slotting into that second-line centre void, he will match nicely with the shot first mentality of Nikolaj Ehlers. Ehlers and Dubois both possess deadly transition percentiles and with Dubois being in the 88th percentile of shot assists correlating with Ehlers’ 98th percentile in shot contributions the tandem is going to begin shredding opposing defences.
The only aspect of the trade that continues to hurt Winnipeg is the lack of defensive presence by merely addressing their centre depth. The Jets currently sit 21st in goals against and 28th in expected goals against in the league. If anything, the team may not have improved defensively drastically, but Dubois does bring higher percentiles in all defensive areas compared to Laine. He also fills a void in the middle that has proven to be more crucial to team success than on the wing. Swapping the two players will likely result in a loss of power-play scoring contributed by Laine; however, the Jets gained a stronger 5v5 goal scorer with Dubois in the 90th percentile in even-strength offence. Winnipeg took the guaranteed even-strength production in this case, but with a power play consisting of Wheeler, Scheifele, and Connor, Dubois may see an increase in special teams production.
The Homecoming
On the other end of the deal, the Blue Jackets are receiving not only one of the best snipers in the NHL but also a young forward: Jack Roslovic. He was looking to play a bigger role within the lineup, and Columbus has filled his request. The Columbus native sits at just 23 years of age and has a high ceiling, although he has never had the real opportunity in his career to showcase his talent. Roslovic is an above-average quality player with a shot assists metric in the 72nd percentile. He also possesses strong metrics in controlled entries and exits, with consistent even-strength offence and defence, making him a great two-way player. With the combination of his talent and the recent opening in Columbus' centre position, Roslovic should get a consistent opportunity to play in the top-six.
A Fresh Start
Laine has also seemed to find his way into controversy in the media, whether it's trade rumours, lack of effort and consistency, or confrontation with his head coach. While none of us will ever know what happens behind closed doors, this will give Laine the fresh start that he was hoping for. Laine is going to be playing under an arguably harsher and more demanding coach in John Tortorella, which may improve his defensive play. Although Torts will help clean up Laine’s defensive attributes, the purpose of acquiring Laine is clear: to shoot the puck. As evident, Laine has a wicked shot that has helped him score 144 goals thus far in his career and will bring a much-needed scoring presence with him being in the 94th percentile in shot contributions. He possesses an offensive and shoot-first mentality that will continue to exist wherever he plays, regardless of coaching; he will bring with him a significant contribution to the powerplay unit with his 95th PP percentile. The Blue Jackets have struggled with the man advantage over the past couple of seasons, and adding a player who has 53 powerplay goals since breaking into the league will be a key addition to their PP1 unit. Max Domi, Patrik's partner on the top line, will complement his game with Domi’s elite shot assist contributions in the 92nd percentile. Consequently, Laine will get excellent opportunities off of rebounds and passes in the offensive zone. Moreover, playing with Cam Atkinson will be an interesting dynamic to watch out for because both players possess a trigger-happy mentality meaning lots of pucks will be fired on net.
Trade Assessment After a Month of Play
Now that a month has passed since the blockbuster trade was announced, there have been two different sides to the story. Laine and Roslovic seem to be fitting in nicely with the Blue Jackets with 7 and 10 points, respectively. Roslovic has destroyed his expected production putting up 10 points in only 12 games and contributing 4 points on the powerplay as well. The trade reveals Roslovic needed to be put in a bigger role to finally show his elite first-round talent, and there is no better place to do that than your hometown. Jack has slid himself into the top-line centre as of late, playing alongside Laine, who has put up a respectable 7 points in his last 9, with a goal on the powerplay as well. Laine will now also get the opportunity to be the go-to guy when scoring is in need and be that first line presence that he has always aspired for himself. On the opposite side of the spectrum, Dubois, unfortunately, has had a rocky start with his new squad after having to sit out for his mandatory quarantine set forth by the Canadian government. On top of the quarantine, Dubois sat out four games with an upper-body injury but put up 3 points in his return to the lineup. He currently has 3 points in his last 3 games and has shown that he can have a significant top-six forward presence for the Jets. Overall, it looks like Columbus acquired more raw talent out of the trade and has increased their forward depth in an area where they were lacking production. On the other side, Winnipeg now finally has their one-two punch of Scheifele and Dubois up the middle and can now let Stastny shore up their third line. In the end, all three forwards in the trade needed a fresh start in a new system, and it will be interesting to see how they will contribute to the long-term success of their respected franchises.
References:
- HockeyDB. (n.d.). 2016 NHL Entry Draft. Retrieved February 22, 2021, from https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/nhl2016e.html
- NHL. (n.d.). Jack Roslovic stats and news. Retrieved February 22, 2021, from https://www.nhl.com/player/jack-roslovic-8478458
- NHL. (n.d.). Patrik Laine stats and news. Retrieved February 22, 2021, from https://www.nhl.com/player/patrik-laine-8479339
- NHL. (n.d.). Pierre-Luc Dubois stats and news. Retrieved February 22, 2021, from https://www.nhl.com/player/pierre-luc-dubois-8479400
- NHL. (n.d.). Team line combinations. Retrieved February 22, 2021, from https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/columbus-blue-jackets/line-combinations/
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