Written By: Jovan Popovic
Edited By: Jack Hinde
The Blue Jays have been linked to so many free agents this offseason, and fans have been upset by the lack of action despite so many rumors. So our experts decided to look into some of the most often discussed Blue Jays targets in an attempt to figure out where these players might sign.
Experts:
Jovan - VP of Journalism, avid baseball fan, Blue Jays journalist (Insight Edge Baseball founder)
Jack - MSSA baseball editor, analytical baseball perspectives, Blue Jays journalist (IEB writer)
Matt - VP of Admin, lifetime baseball fan
George Springer
Springer is arguably the best available player on the free agent market. The 31 year old center fielder played the last seven years with the Astros, where he would win World Series MVP in the 2017 World Series victory*. During his time in Houston he would appear in three All-Star games, and win two Silver Slugger awards.
Springer’s best year came in 2019, where he hit to a slash line of .265/.359/.540 with 39 home runs. On the flip side Springer produced 12 defensive runs saved. The defensive metrics are key for Springer when considering his fit in Toronto. The Blue Jays have a very talented outfield offensively, but Grichuk is not a suitable long term option in center, as he is very clearly a corner outfield option. Signing Springer would allow the Jays to shift Randal Grichuk to a corner, while also giving the team a trade asset in Lourdes Gurriel, or Grichuk.
Springer is said to be pursuing a $150 million deal in free agency. The Jays and Mets are considered to be the only two teams remaining in negotiations, and only the Jays have officially made an offer. Toronto reportedly offered Springer $125 million over 5 years, notably lower than his asking price. The Mets are rumored to be sitting in the $145-$160 range, although nothing is official.
Predictions
Jovan: New York Mets
Jack: New York Mets
Matt: New York Mets
DJ LeMahieu
LeMahieu is a player that many Jays fans know very well after seeing him dominate for the Yankees in the last two seasons. Over the previous 10 years he spent time with the Cubs, Yankees, and most notably, the Rockies. Over his career he was a three time All-Star, three time Gold Glove winner, two time Batting Title winner, and two time Silver Slugger winner (2019 and 2020 with NYY). In the past two seasons with the Yankees he finished 4th and 3rd in MVP voting.
LeMahieu has always been a solid defender, and a great contact hitter, but he really found his power stroke in the Bronx, hitting 36 home runs in 797 at bats as a Yankee. In 2020 LeMahieu led the league in batting average, on base percentage, and OPS, finishing with a .364/.421/.590 slash line. On the other side of the ball he finished with 0 defensive runs saved, and although it is a regression from the numbers he used to put up, it is still solid defensive production that would’ve finished second highest on the Jays in 2020.
LeMahieu is considered by many to be the top available bat this offseason, and with the Yankees rumored to be more than $25 million apart from LeMahieu in contract talks, he could find himself in a new uniform next season. The Blue Jays have reportedly been very interested in him, but many have questioned his fit with the young Blue Jays roster, as he will be entering his age 32 season with regressing defensive numbers.
Predictions
Jovan: Toronto Blue Jays
Jack: New York Yankees
Matt: New York Yankees
Trevor Bauer
It isn’t often that a reigning Cy Young winner is available in free agency, but nothing about the last year has been very normal. Bauer took home the prestigious award after a season in which he led the league in ERA, WHIP, and other significant figures as a member of the Cincinnati Reds. The UCLA product has been targeted by many teams, and he has only added fuel to the fire as one of the most outspoken players the league has ever seen. He frequently toys with fans' emotions on twitter, and has constantly found ways to increase his personal brand throughout the offseason.
Although his 2020 season was incredible, the rest of his career really hasn’t matched the same level of production. Over his 10 major league seasons with the Diamondbacks, Reds, and most notably the Indians (as fans may remember because of the drone incident) he holds a career 3.90 ERA. That figure may actually be misleading however, as his career numbers are heavily weighed down by his strong 2020 and 2018 seasons. The one time All-Star has long-flashed potential to be a star, especially after his 2018 season where he posted a 2.21 ERA and finished 6th in Cy Young voting, and seemed to finally figure things out in 2020, where he finished with a league leading 1.73 ERA and a 0.795 WHIP. The rest of his career is a different story though, as those two seasons were the only years he finished with an ERA under 4.15. Many are also questioning what may have caused the significant increase in his spin rate in his free agent year, as it shot up by 500 RPM. Just a year ago in an allegation against the Astros, Bauer said that RPM can’t possibly increase by 400+ in a season without cheating, so that makes things very interesting.
Although the Jays have remained in contact with Bauer, they certainly aren’t the front runners, as he is reportedly seeking a $300+ million contract. The Jays do have money to spend, but that appears to be more than their budget allows for.
Predictions
Jovan: Los Angeles Dodgers
Jack: Los Angeles Angels
Matt: Toronto Blue Jays
Jackie Bradley Jr.
Bradley Jr. is yet another name that Jays fans might find familiar, as he has been manning the centerfield spot for the Red Sox over the past eight seasons. Bradley is most well known for his defence, and his incredible arm which became popular after a video circulated of Bradley throwing a ball over the green monster from behind home plate. He won a Gold Glove in 2018, and made an All-Star game appearance in 2016, which was arguably his best all-around season (career high 26 home runs).
With Randal Grichuk as the primary centerfield option for the Jays, they’ve actively been searching for a defensive upgrade, and Bradley has been largely considered a backup plan should they lose out on George Springer. In 2020 Bradley yet again showed flashes of defensive excellence as he accumulated 5 defensive runs saved with a perfect 1.000 fielding percentage. Unfortunately he hasn’t been able to find that same kind of success on the offensive side, which has truly been the only thing keeping him from a big contract. In his career he holds a .732 career OPS, most of which comes from his slugging. He has always had some pop, but has long struggled to get on base with a high degree of success, whether it be via base hit, or any other form.
Typically defensive players rely on their athleticism, which is one of the first aspects of the game to decline with age. Heading into his age 31 season Bradley is unlikely to fetch a long term contract, but could find himself on a fairly lucrative 2-3 year contract, especially if he waits for Springer to find a home first. The Jays have been linked to him on several occasions, but won’t rush to make any kind of move until after Springer is off the market.
Predictions
Jovan: Boston Red Sox
Jack: Toronto Blue Jays
Matt: Boston Red Sox
Justin Turner
Turner is a free agent for the second time in his career after signing a 4 year, $64 million contract last time out. After continuing to perform at an elite level through the entirety of the 4 year contract, Turner is back out on the market going into his age 36 year seeking a 4 year deal.
Last time in free agency Justin Turner struggled to get a large contract after many questioned how much longer he could keep up this level of play, but after almost no signs of decline offensively, teams might just believe that his play could last a little longer. As a 35 year old in 2020 Turner hit for a .307/.400/.460 slash line. Defensively he finished with -1 defensive runs scored, which is about league average. He only played 3B in 2020, but in the last five years has spent time at first, second, and short. He is still a highly impactful player in the lineup so there are several teams in on him, and if he was just younger teams would be all over him. It’s incredible how well he has played in his old age, but it will only be a matter of time before the decline begins.
Dodger fans would love to have Turner back in LA next season, but the team has checked the availability of several potential trade options, leaving their intentions unclear. The Dodgers have struggled to get much traction on these talks, and there is always the possibility that it is simply a negotiation tactic. As our experts unanimously predicted, he might just end up back in LA.
Predictions
Jovan: Los Angeles Dodgers
Jack: Los Angeles Dodgers
Matt: Los Angeles Dodgers
J.T Realmuto
Realmuto is the best catcher in baseball, period. There is typically no debate surrounding that either. Despite the great opportunity here, many teams have been highly resistant to signing Realmuto, and it actually makes sense. Although his level of play has come unmatched at his position, the market is unbelievably slow, and the Jays are prepared to hop in at the right price.
The two time All-Star catcher is also a two time Silver Slugger recipient, and a Gold Glove recipient. His best season came in 2019, where he even finished 14th in MVP voting after finishing with a career high 26 home runs, and a slash line of .275/.328/.493, very similar to his 2020 stats. In 2019 he led the league in caught stealing after throwing out 47% of runners (league average was 26%). In 2019 and 2020 he also finished first in all of baseball in pitch framing.
Realmuto is clearly a high impact player, and he deserves to be paid for that. The primary issue that teams have when offering him a contract is the typical production curve for catchers. Being one of the more physically intensive positions, catchers typically find themselves in a sharp decline by their early 30s, and are commonly converted to 1B full time by their mid 30s. This signing also wouldn’t make the most sense for Toronto, as they have talented young catchers Danny Jansen, Reese McGuire, and Alejandro Kirk. Sources inside the organization have said that they are looking at Realmuto, and will only consider him a significant option if the market is cold and his price falls. With the only other high spending team (Mets) having found their catcher in James McCann, Realmuto to the Jays has become a real possibility.
Predictions
Jovan: Washington Nationals
Jack: Philadelphia Phillies
Matt: Philadelphia Phillies
Brad Hand
In a free agent class filled with strong relief options, Brad Hand highlights the available left handers. The 3x All-Star led the league in saves in 2020 and was viewed as one of the games elite closers, but his $10 million team option was surprisingly declined by the Indians, claiming they were no longer able to afford him after the financial impacts of the COVID-ridden season.
The 10-year veteran has bounced around during his career, from the Marlins, to the Padres, to the Indians. After being converted from a starter to a reliever in San Diego, Hand found his groove and became the elite pitcher he is today. He was traded to the Padres before the 2016 season, and all three All-Star appearances have occurred since then, the most recent having come in 2019 as a member of the Indians. In 2020 Hand pitched to a 2.05 ERA with a career low 0.773 WHIP, while also finding career bests in BB/9, HR/9, and H/9.
Prior to his contract being declined, he was put on waivers for any of the 29 other teams to claim. At his $10 million price tag not a single team bit, likely indicating that teams were looking for a lesser price, and a longer term deal for the 30 year old. Toronto is looking into many relief options in the free agent market, but with many unexpected candidates in the reliever market, it is nearly impossible to predict correctly. Lacking a true lefty headed into 2021, Hand seems like a logical choice for Toronto, but with so few rumors linking the two, it appears very unclear as to whether they truly have a chance at him, as well as the reasoning behind it.
Predictions
Jovan: Los Angeles Dodgers
Jack: Los Angeles Angels
Matt: New York Mets
Jake Odorizzi
2019 All-Star Jake Odorizzi is one of the most sought after pitching options in this year's market. He is a talented right handed starter, but isn’t at the elite level of a front end pitcher who would cost teams a fortune. Over the last 9 years Odorizzi has been a very consistent and dependable arm who holds a career 3.92 ERA. He has mostly been linked to the Red Sox (a team led by a former Rays front office exec) and the Mets thus far, but with a pitcher of his caliber in this market, one can never be too sure.
In 2020 Odorizzi struggled with the Twins, fighting through an injury-riddled season where he never truly looked like himself. He finished the year with a 6.59 ERA over 4 total starts, but it isn’t indicative of the pitcher he really is, especially coming off an All-Star season the year prior. Only heading into his age 31 season, Odorizzi could be a great fit to many different rotations as a very solid 3-4 guy.
Toronto has made it obvious that they are looking for rotation help, but having checked in on so many different guys, it’s hard to keep track of who they are truly targeting. Jake Odorizzi could be a great fit, but the Jays appear more likely to go for Sugano. However, with a division rival as the likely option for Odorizzi, the team might just be willing to step up to make sure he doesn’t head to Boston.
Predictions
Jovan: Boston Red Sox
Jack: Boston Red Sox
Matt: Boston Red Sox
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